视频经济学金融市场 20 客座演讲 Guest Lecture by Stephen SchwarzmanWord格式.docx
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视频经济学金融市场 20 客座演讲 Guest Lecture by Stephen SchwarzmanWord格式.docx
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Lecture20Transcript
April11,2008
ProfessorRobertShiller:
Well,IhavethepleasureofintroducingtoyoutodayStephenSchwarzman,whohaskindlyagreedtolectureourclass.Mr.SchwarzmangraduatedfromYalein1969.HewasatDavenportCollege.DowehaveanyDavenportpeoplehere?
Afew,notalot.HegraduatedthenfromHarvardBusinessSchoolin1972.HeworkedforLehmanBrothersas--Idon'
tknowifitwashisfirstjob,butoneofhisfirstjobs,andbecameManagingDirectoratLehmanBrothersatagethirty-oneandhebecameheadoftheirGlobalMergersandAcquisitionsteam.In1985,Mr.Schwarzman,withPeterPeterson,foundedtheBlackstoneGroup,whichhasbecometheleadmanagerofalternativeassets.
Insomesense,whathedoesandwhatDavidSwensendoes,whomwehadheardfromearlierthissemester,aresimilar.They'
rebothlookingatunusualanddifferentinvestmentassetsandtheyarebothverysuccessfulindoingthis.Mr.Schwarzman'
sfirmhashadareturnonprivateequityinvestmentsof23%ayearforthelast--onaverage--forthelasttwentyyears.ThisisalittlebitinexcessofDavidSwensen,butIthinkwehavetoputthembothasremarkableinvestors.IntherealestategroupatBlackstone,they'
vehad30%ayearforthelastfifteenyearsandthisisafterfees.BlackstoneGrouphasbeenverymuchinthenewsrecently.Itjustcameoutthattheyareapparentlygoingtobebuying$12.5billiondollarsofleveragedloansfromCitigroupatasteepdiscount.So,apparentlythey'
veseenaprofitopportunitythereorthey'
resupportingoureconomyfromtheravagesofthesubprimecrisis.
Alsointhenews,Chinahasannouncedthatitplanstobuy$3billiondollarsstakeinBlackstoneGroupasitsfirstefforttodiversifyits$1.2trilliondollarsofforeignexchangereserves.So,theBlackstoneGroupwaspickedbytheChinesegovernmentasthemostfittingplaceforittoputsomeofitsreserves.Withthat,IwillleaveittoMr.Schwarzman,whowillspeakforawhileandthenwewillopenitupforquestions.I'
mgoingtohavetoask--canyourepeattheirquestionsbecauseitwillbedifficulthearingotherwise?
Ihavetomovethetwomicrophones.
Mr.StephenSchwarzman:
Well,thankyouverymuchforcomingoutonwhat'
sabitofdreary,slightlyrainymorning.WhenIwasanundergraduate,youwouldn'
thavegottenmuchofanattendance;
peoplewouldhavebeensleepingin.So,it'
sawfulniceofyoutobehere.TherearesomedramaticdifferencesfromwhenIwasanundergraduateandyouare.Oneofthefirstdifferencesisthatthiscoursewouldn'
thaveexistedbecausenoonehadaninterestinfinanceatthattime.Itwasn'
taparticularlyinterestingtime.Inthe1960s,thesecuritiesmarketsactuallywereregulated,commissionswerefixedontheNewYorkStockExchange;
so,itwasverydifficulttofindsomewaytocompete.Itwassortofriggedsystem,ifyouwill,anditwasn'
topen.
So,therewasverylittletonointerest,really,infinance.Therereallywasn'
tanSOM--SchoolofManagement--atYaleatthatpoint.Businessgenerallywasutterlyunfashionable.WewereinthemidstoftheVietnamWarandbusinesswassortoflinkedtotheperceptionofthatwarbecausetheysuppliedcertaintypesofwarmaterialsandthatwasthemostunfashionablethingthatyoucouldbeinvolvedwith.So,therewasaveryanti-business,non-existentfinanceorientationattheschooland,obviously,that'
schangedinthesocietygenerally,withenormousdifferences.AsaresultofwhenIgrewup,Ididn'
teventakeaneconomicscourseatYale.Ifranklywasn'
tmuchgoodwithmath;
IstoppedintheeleventhgradeandIthinkcalculuswas,forme,thatwaswaytoomuchofareach.So,I'
mmoreintheadd,subtract,multiply,anddividekindofcategory,whichworkedandstilldoesquitewellforme.
WhenIgraduated,Iwasluckyenoughtogetajobatafirmthathadjustgonepublic.ItwasthefirstNewYorkStockExchangefirmthathadjustgonepublic;
itwascalledDonaldson,Lufkin&
Jenrette.BillDonaldsonactuallyfoundedtheSchoolofManagementafterheleftDLJ.Thatwas,becausethisisafinancialmarketscourse,thatwasquiteinterestingformebecauseIdidn'
tevenknowwhatcommonstockwaswhenIgraduated.Hopefully,youwillhavelearnedmoreinthiscourse.IwenttoDLJ--Icouldn'
treadafinancialstatement,whichislikegoingtoaforeigncountryandnotbeingabletospeakthelanguage;
itwassortofhopeless.
OneoftheinterestingexperiencesIhadabout--whichreally,nowthatI'
malittlebitolderandcanlookbackwardsonfinancialmarkets,itwasmyfirstvisittoacompany.DLJbasicallywasoneofthefirstlargeinstitutionalstockmanagersofpensionfundassetsandsoforthandIwasallowedtogoandinterviewacompany.Ihadneverinterviewedacompanyexecutive;
IreadtheirannualreportandIwentuptoseethisgentlemanandIsatthere.IfiguredoutallthethingsI'
dwanttoknowsothatIcouldfigureoutwhetherIshouldbuyhisstockorinvestinhiscompany.Iwentthroughmylistofquestionsandhewouldn'
tanswermostofthem.Ifounditaveryfrustratingexperience.
IwentbacktotheofficeandbythetimeIgotbacktotheoffice,DickJenrette,whowaspresidentofthefirm,hadgottenanenragedphonecallfromthisexecutiveandcalledmeintohisoffice.Hesaid,geezyoumadethismanveryangry.Isaid,wellhowcouldIdothat?
Iwasjustaskingquestionsandhewasn'
tansweringthem,soIjustaskedthequestionagain.Icouldn'
tquiteunderstandwhyhewasn'
tansweringme.Hesaid,wellyouwereaskinghimthingsthathe'
snotallowedtoanswer.Isaid,whatdoyoumean?
Hesaid,wellyouwereaskinghimforinsideinformation.Isaid,wellIdon'
tknowwhatinsideinformationis;
I'
mjustaskingthequestionthatIneedtoknowtoknowtoanswerwhethertobuythestockornot.Hesaid,wellSteve,therearealltheserulesofwhatyoucanasksomebody.Thenifhetellsyou,thenhehastotelleverybodyintheworldandthat'
sjusttoocumbersome,sothat'
swhyhedidn'
tanswer.Isaid,wellifhedidn'
tanswer,howintheworldcanyoufigureoutwhattodo?
Isaid,I'
mnotthatsmart;
Ineedtohaveallrelevantdataandhe'
sthepersonwhohasit,sowhywon'
thegiveittome?
ItbecameprettyclearthatIwasdoingthewrongthingforaliving.Ineffect,that'
sthedilemmaforpeoplewhowanttobuyliquidsecurities.Idecidedveryquicklythiswasabadbusiness,certainlyabadoneforme--thatIcouldn'
tfigureouthowIcouldwinthatgamewhensomebodywouldn'
tfullyshareopenlyeverythingtheyknew.Iguessifyouwerelikeasumowithagoodfashionsense,that'
showyoumanageliquidsecuritiesandbeatotherpeople.It'
snotjustwhatyouknow,it'
saquestionofwhethertherestoftheworldwillbuyintowhatyouknowanddrivethatsecurityup.So,IbasicallyretreatedandwenttoHarvardBusinessSchool,whereIfiguredmaybesomebodywilltellmehowthisgamereallyworksinawaythatIcanprosperinit.Thatwasagoodexperienceforme.Theybasicallytaughtyou--you'
reundergraduates,soyoudon'
tknowwhatthey'
reteachingyouattheschoollikethat--so,Icanexplainitactuallyprettyclearly.
It'
sbasically--they'
reteachingyouthateverythingyoudowithacompanyhassomethingelsetodowiththatcompany,sothatit'
sanintegratedsystem.Ifyouaretryingtodevelopaproductforsale,itwouldbegoodtoknowwhethersomebodywantsit.Whathappens,actually,intherealworld,isthatsometimespeoplejustgetaninterestingideaandthey'
llproduceaproductandnobodywillwantit.Ifyouintegrateallthedifferentkindsofknowledgeinthecompanysothatyou'
redoingintelligentthings--andIknowthisappearsveryelementary--you'
llhaveabettercompany.That'
ssortofwhattheywereteachingandaftertheytaughtthatfortwoorthreemonths,Isortofgotitandthoughtaboutdroppingoutofschoolbecauseitgotalittlerepetitive,frankly.Iwasconvincedbymyfriend,DickJenrette,whoalsothoughtaboutdroppingoutofHarvardBusinessSchool.InDecember,itgetsverycoldinBostonandreallymiserable--hewasgoingtodropoutandgoandgetaPhDinEconomics.IwasgoingtodropoutandgobacktotherealworldandhesaidthathisstayingonwasagoodthingandIshouldstayon,soIdid.
WhatI'
vesortofdoneforacareeristryandsolvethatproblemofmyinitialmeeting,wherepeoplewill--Iwantpeopletotellmewhat'
sreallygoingon,soIcanfigureoutwhetherwhatthey'
resayingmakessenseordoesn'
tmakesense.Youcandothatintheprivateequitybusiness,whichwassortofourlargestbusiness,andyoucandothatintherealestatebusinessbecauseyou'
reallowedtogetallthatinsideinformation,ifyou'
retryingtobuyacompanywithourrulesandalsotherulesofothercountries.Ifyousignaconfidentialityagreementthatyouwon'
tusethatinformationforanypurposeotherthanbuyingthecompanyandputtingapr
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