我的argument提纲.docx
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我的argument提纲.docx
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我的argument提纲
我的argument提纲,自己觉得还不错
IntroductoryParagraph
Inthisargument,theauthorconcludesthat…Tosupporthisconclusion,theauthorpointsoutthat…Inaddition,theauthorreasonsthat…Furthermore,healsoassumesthat…Whiletheauthor’sargumenthassomemerit,itsuffersfromseverallogicalflawsthatdeserveourattention./Thislineofreasoningisunconvincingforacoupleofreasons.
Inthefirstplace,themajorproblemwiththisargumentisthat,
Inthesecondplace,
Lastbutnotleast,
Flawsinevidence
1.VestedInterest
既得利益,一般是第一个攻击点,后面用让步语气:
即使它正确
eg(整体性:
摘自广告媒体,只会说自己产品的优点,不会说缺点):
12,13,15,57,65,96
eg(局部性:
report):
14,70,93,998,105,110,125,补11
Wehavestrongreasonstoquestionthecreditabilityandneutralityofthesurveyinwhichtheconductorhasvestedinterestand,thereforeisinclinedtomanipulatethefigurestohisownadvantage/andthereforeispronetotakethepositiontohisownadvantage.
2.SpeciousEvidence
eg:
9,11,12,15,25,26,28,30,6
Tobeginwith,thestatisticsareintendedtosupportthemainclaimthat…Butthesestatisticsarevagueandoversimplified,andthusmanydistortthestate’soveralleconomicpicture.Forexample,…Moreover,…atthesametime…Finally,thepollindicatesthat…butfailtoindicate…
3.StatisticalEvidence
3.1Insufficientsample
eg:
146,115,25,98,123,134,141
…mightnotbesufficienttogauge…thatis,…Lackinginformationabout…itisimpossibletodrawanyreliableconclusionabout…
3.2Respondent
必须要证明respondentscanrepresentthepopulation
respondents和nonrespondents可能有区别eg:
8,15,115
注意
respondant还存在客观性问题,respondents只代表观点倾向,事实问题不能用这个调查
survey的备择选项一定要全面
survey不可叠加问题
eg:
8,15,57,63,82,115,141
Athresholdproblemwiththeargumentinvolvesthestatisticalreliabilityofthesurvey.TheauthorprovidesnoevidencethatthenumberofrespondentsisstatisticallysignificantorthattherespondentswererepresentativeofAingeneral.Lackinginformationabouttherandomnessandsizeofthesurvey’ssample,theauthorcannotmakeaconvincingargumentbasedonthatsurvey.
Grantedthat…,
3.4VagueDefinition
3.5ProblematicMethodology
eg:
57,63
3.6LackofKeyinformation
3.7InformationtooVague
尽量少用
eg:
3,15,34,82,83,103,120
Fallacies
1.FallaciesconcerningGeneralization
1.1HastyGeneralization(InsufficientSample)
样本太小,小范围不可推及大范围
——这个小范围很特殊
——选另一个小范围和原来那个比较有什么区别
eg:
数量上推广:
30(morepopulatedregions),13(CumquatCafe),26(Windfall)
eg:
范围上推广:
8(15%moreresidents),112(parentsoffirstgraders)
注意限定词的修饰
TheargumentassumesthatAistypicalofallAA,asagroup.However,thisisnotnecessarilythecase.(如果是统计数据的话:
OneproblemwiththeargumentinvolvesthecitedstatisticsaboutA)Dependingonthetotalnumber/sizeofAA,itisentirelypossiblethatA,arenotrepresentativeofAA,generally.Forexample,perhapsA…(A的特殊性)Ifso,thentheconclusionthat…iscompletelyunwarranted.Infact,inthefaceofsuchlimitedevidenceitisfallacioustodrawanyconclusionatall.
1.2Misappliedgeneralization
commonsense不一定能推及小范围
eg:
71(nation’scities,ourregion),103(nationwide,ouruniversity),33(nationalunemploymentrates,Perks),138(nation’stopfive,Gazette)
AlthoughtheauthorassumesthatAAreflectsAingeneral(AistypicalofAA/AAappliesspecificallytoA),itsuppliesnoevidencewhatsoevertosubstantiatethisassumption.ItisentirelypossiblethatA…(A的特殊性)Ifso,theauthorcannotjustifyhis/herrecommendation/conclusion,atleastnotbasedonAA.
2.ConfusioninCausalReasoning:
2.1CausalOversimplification
单现象A推出:
A->B
——指出A不是B的原因
——指出除了A之外,还有其他原因导致B
eg:
47,30,46
Inthefirstplace,noevidencehasbeenofferedtosupporttheassumptionthatthereasonofBisA.WhileAisanimportantcontributingfactortoB,itisnottheonlysuchfactor.Manyotherreasons------C,D,E------couldjusaslikeaccountforB.LackingadetailedanalysisofthereasonsforB,ifwouldbegroundless/flawedtoattributeBtoA.(WhileitturnsoutthatBhasnothingtodowithA,thentherecommendationwillprobablynotsolvetheproblem.)
2.2Posthoc,ergopropterhoc(Afterthis,thereforebecauseofthis)
双现象 A—B 推出 A->B
注意时间状语词:
since,afterthat,
Tobeginwith,theauthorhasengagedin“Posthoc,ergopropterhoc”reasoning.TheonlyreasonofferedforbelievingthatAcausedBisthefactthattheformerprecededthelatter.However,theevidenceisinsufficienttoestablishtheclaiminquestionbecauseamerechronologicalrelationshipisonlyoneoftheindicatorsofacausalrelationshipand,therefore,doesnotnecessarilyproveacausalrelationship.Toestablishageneralcausalrelationship,otherfactorsthatcouldbringaboutthisresultmustbeconsideredandeliminated.Forexample….inaddition…
2.3Cumhoc,ergopropterhoc(Concurrence)
双现象 A—B 推出 A->B
注意时间状语词,coincidewith,sodo,
eg:
13,38,105,135,124
Tobeginwith,theauthor’sargumentisbasedontheassumption/claimthatAisthecauseofB.However,thefactthatAcoincideswithBdoesnotnecessarilyproveacausalconnectionbetweenthem.Otherfactors,suchasC,couldberesponsibleforA.thisisfallaciousreasoningunlessotherpossiblecausalexplanationshavebeenconsideredandruledout.Forexample,perhapsCisthecauseoftheseeventsorperhapsAiscausedbyD.
3.OtherFallacies
3.1FalseAnalogy
错误的类比类推:
A有P的属性,且A与B相似,则推出B有P的属性
——指出A与B是有差异的,文中A属性I,说明B没有I
eg:
1
注意修饰词:
neighboring,nearby,onthenextblock
Tobeginwith,thefirstreasonrestsontheassumptionthatAisanalogoustoB.Butthisassumptionisweak,sincealthoughtherearepointsofcomparisonbetweenAandB,therearemanydissimilaritiesaswell.Forexample,I…ThesedifferencesbetweenAandBmayprecludethemfromhavingasimilareffectonC.
A做了T得到P,且A与B相似,则推出B做了T也能得到P
——双重攻击:
指出A与B是有差异的,并且P不是T导致的
eg:
118
3.2Allthingsareequal
时间层面:
过去不等于将来
地点层面
错误类型:
结论是prediction
eg:
15,25,9,31
Finally,theauthor’sconclusiondependsonthequestionableassumptionthatthebackgroundconditionsof…haveremainedthesameatthedifferenttime/arethesameatdifferentlocations.(Admittedly,hadtenyearselapsedtheargumentwouldbeevenweaker.)Yettwoyears/eighteenmonthsissufficienttimeforasignificantchangeintheoverall…,C,D,E.LackingevidencethatAwouldcontinue….,theauthorcannotjustifyitsrecommendation/cannotjustifiablyconcludethat…
3.3FalseDilemma(Black-or-Whitereasoning)
错误类型:
探讨eitherAorB,推出结论
——A,B不互斥(notmustexclusive)A,B可不可以一起做
——是否有第三个选择C
eg:
85,28,71,134,15
TheauthorassumesthatAandBaremutuallyexclusivealternativesandthereisnoroomforamiddleground.However,theauthorprovidesnoreasonforimposinganeither/orchoice.BothAandBmightproducebetterresults.Moreover,theauthoroverlooksthepossibilitythatC.
3.4AppealtoIgnorance
错误类型:
noevidenceforA推出A错误
noevidenceagainstA推出A正确
complain题:
不投诉的人不代表满意(noevidence)
及时投诉率低,还是需要比较同行业的水平(参照对象)
真正投诉的人是核心客户,所以即使投诉率很低也不能neglect
eg:
10,39,110,69,123
TheargumentturnsontheassumptionthatXXwhodidnotcomplainwerehappywith…However,theauthorprovidesnoevidencetosupportthisassumption:
lackofproofisnotproof.ItisentirelypossiblethatmanysuchXXXexpresstheirdispleasuresimplybynotreturningto…/ItispossiblethatXXXaredispleasedbuttoobusytoformallycomplain.Lackingmorecompleteinformationabout…,theauthorcannotassumethat…
3.5One-Sidedness
单方面分析,对一个问题,只针对它的优点,或只针对它的缺点。
错误类型:
要做A,A有优点一,二,三
——要做A,条件是A的收益大于成本,或利大于弊
——列举其他收益或成本
eg:
2,7,42
eg(收益成本):
24,44,102,106
Theauthorfailstoconsiderbenefits/costsAmightbring.Forexample,…Itmayturnoutthatsuchbenefits/costsfaroutweighthedisadvantages/advantages.Becausetheauthor’sargumentlacksacompleteanalysisofthesituation,theauthor’sconclusion/recommendationcannotbetakenseriously.
HintsfromConclusion
1.OneSidedness
2.Causation
3.Sufficiency
recommendation是否能充分解决问题
eg:
40,88,94,139
4.Necessity
recommendation是否是唯一的最好方案 falsedilemma
注意 先攻击sufficiency,再攻击necessity
eg:
37,75,48
ContentParagraphs
Sincetheauthorcommitstheabovementionedlogicalmistakesandfailstoconsiderthewholesituationcomprehensively,hisideasshouldnotbeadopted.Theconclusionwouldbestrengthenedifhe
Argument
Opening
Inthisargument,theauthorcomestotheconclusion/recommendationthat…Inordertosubstantiatehisconclusion,theauthorcitesasevidencethefactthat…Inaddition,hereasonsthat…Furthermore,hetakesitforgranted/assumesthat…However,theargumentisunconvincingasitsuffersfromseveralcriticalfallacies.
gratuitousassumption/causaloversimplification
Theauthorfalselydependsongratuitousassumptionthat…Yet,noevidenceismentionedintheargumenttobuttressthisassumption.Theremaybesomeotherfactorsthattheauthorfailstotakeintoconsiderationcontributingtotheresultthat…Itcanbesth.thatleadstothisconsequence.Itisalsolikelythat…turnstoberesponsible.Anyofthesescenarios,iftrue,wouldgiveriseto…Thus,thisargumentisgroundlessunlessthepossiblefactorsotherthanthe…areruledout.
Fallacyofposthoc,ergopropterhoc
Theargumentcommitsalogicfallacyof“afterthis,thereforebecauseofthis”byassumingthatthereisacausalrelationshipbetweenAandB.Undernocircumstancecanthemerefactthat…becitedasevidencetosupportthisassumption.Moreover,thestatisticalcorrelati
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