美赛F题山东大学O奖论文.pdf
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美赛F题山东大学O奖论文.pdf
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ForofficeuseonlyT1_T2_T3_T4_TeamControlNumber46634ProblemChosenFForofficeuseonlyF1_F2_F3_F4_2016MCM/ICMSummarySheet(Yourteamssummaryshouldbeincludedasthefirstpageofyourelectronicsubmission.)Typeasummaryofyourresultsonthispage.Donotincludethenameofyourschool,advisor,orteammembersonthispage.ModelingtoRefugeesPoliciesSummaryWiththousandsofrefugeesmovingacrossEuropeandmorearrivingeachday,considerableattentionhasbeengiventorefugeeintegrationpoliciesandpracticesinmanycountriesandregions.Webuildaseriesofmodelstoexplorethefactorsinvolvedwithfacilitatingthemovementofrefugeesfromtheircountriesoforiginintosafehavencountries.Firstly,weoptimizetheControlVariablealgorithmtobuildamodeltoanalyzethemeasuresandparametersofthecrisis.Wesetfactorssuchasthepsychologicalqualityandfaithofrefugees,theresourcesandrefugeepolicyoftherefugee-receivingcountry,therefugeessaturationoftherefugee-receivingcountryandthenaturaldisasterorterrorist.Findingoutthateveryfactorisofcrucialimportance,andthemorefavorabletheconditionsare,themorelikelytherefugeesmovetothesafecountries.Secondly,weusetheindexsetabovetoanalyzetheflowofrefugees.FromtheoptimizedSmallWorldNetworkalgorithm,wefindthatthereare637000refugeesarrivingEUayear,amongthem,311000refugeeswilltransferviaEasternMediterranean,221000refugeesviaWestMediterranean,45000refugeesviaWestBalkans,32000refugeesviaEasternBorders,18000refugeesfromAlbaniatoGreece,and10000refugeesviaCentralMediterranean.Andthetransferrateshouldbecontrolledbelow50187permonth.Thirdly,weconsidertheparameterssetintask1aredynamic,findingoutthatourmodelisalsoapplicativewhileweshouldadjustthedetailsinourmodel.Finally,wemakeareporttodiscussourmodelindetailandraisetheneededpolicysupport.Weanalyzetheimpactofexogenouseventsaswell.Meanwhile,westatethescalabilityofourmodel.Thenwebelievethatourmodelcansolvemostoftheproblems.Intheend,weanalyzethestabilityandsensitivityofmodel.Wealsoconcludethestrengthsandweaknessesofourmodel.Further,theaccuracyofourmodelneedsimproving.Team#46634page1of22IntroductionBackgroundWithhundredsofthousandsofrefugeesmovingacrossEuropeandmorearrivingeachday,considerableattentionhasbeengiventorefugeeintegrationpoliciesandpracticesinmanycountriesandregions.Historyhasshownusthatmassfleeingofpopulationsoccurasaresultofmajorpoliticalandsocialunrestandwarfare.Thesecrisesbringasetofuniquechallengesthatmustbemanagedcarefullythrougheffectivepolicies.EventsintheMiddleEasthavecausedamassivesurgeofrefugeesemigratingfromtheMiddleEastintosafehavencountriesinEuropeandpartsofAsia,oftenmovingthroughtheMediterraneanandintocountriessuchasTurkey,Hungary,Germany,France,andUK.BytheendofOctober2015,Europeancountrieshadreceivedover715,000asylumapplicationsfromrefugees.Hungarytoppedthechartswithnearly1,450applicationsper100,000inhabitants,butwithonlyasmallpercentageofthoserequestsgranted(32%in2014),leavingclosetoathousandrefugeeshomelessperevery100Kresidentsofthecountry.Europehasestablishedaquotasystemthateachcountryhasagreedtotakeinaparticularnumberofrefugees,withthemajorityoftheresettlementburdenlyingwithFranceandGermany.OurWorkFirstly,weoptimizetheControlVariablealgorithmtobuildamodeltoanalyzethemeasuresandparametersofthecrisis.Wesetthepsychologicalqualityofrefugees,thefaithoftherefugees,thematerialandfinancialresourcesoftherefugee-receivingcountry,therefugeepolicyoftherefugee-receivingcountry,therefugeessaturationoftherefugee-receivingcountryandthenaturaldisaster,terroristasfactors,findingoutthateveryfactorisimportanttothecrisis,andthemorefavorabletheconditionsare,themorelikelytherefugeesmovetothesafecountries.Secondly,weusetheindexsetabovetoanalyzetheflowofrefugees.FromtheoptimizedSmallWorldNetworkalgorithm,wefindthatthereare637000refugeesarrivingEUayear,amongthem,311000refugeeswilltransferviaEasternMediterranean,221000refugeesviaWestMediterranean,45000refugeesviaWestBalkans,32000refugeesviaEasternBorders,18000refugeesfromAlbaniatoGreece,and10000refugeesviaCentralMediterranean.Andthetransferrateshouldbecontrolledbelow50187permonth.Thirdly,weconsidertheparameterssetintask1aredynamic,findingoutthatourmodelisalsoapplicablewhileweshouldadjustthedetailsinourmodel.Finally,wemakeareporttodiscussourmodelindetailandraisetheneededpolicysupport.Weanalyzetheimpactofexogenouseventsaswell.Meanwhile,westatethescalabilityofourmodel.Thenwebelievethatourmodelcansolvemostoftheproblems.AssumptionsIgnoretheslimrefugeescountry.Thecountriesthathavefewrefugeesorreceivefewrefugeesdonothavemuchinfluenceonourmodel.Ignorethetimeofpreparationfortransfer.Thetimeofpreparationfortransfercannotdetermineitssignificancecompletely,andwetakethetimeofpreparationfortransferintoconsiderationwhenwediscussthemutualreferenceofallwork.Team#46634page2of22Table1showsthedefinitionsofthesymbols.Table1SymboldefinitioninstructionSymbolMeaning1Fthesuccessrateofrefugeesarrivinginsafe-havencountries
(1)1Frefugeespsychologicaldiathesisoftheirowndiathesis
(2)1Frefugeesphysicaldiathesisoftheirowndiathesis(3)1Frefugeesculturalaccomplishmentoftheirowndiathesis(4)1Frefugeeschoiceofrouteoftheirowndiathesis2Ftheinfluencethatcountriespolicybringstorefugees
(1)2Fthereligiouspolicyofthecountry
(2)2Fthenumberofrefugeesthecountrycanfeed(3)2Ffinancialandmaterialresourcesofthecountry(4)2Fthepolicyofthecountryrefugeespassed3Ftheimpactofsomeemergencyevents
(1)3Fthethreatoftheterroristintheroute
(2)3Fthethreatofnaturedisasterintheroute,ijGSFlagwhethercountryiandcountryjhavethesamereligioniSrthesaturationrateoftherefugeesincountryiiSpthecontributionrateforrefugeesijDstherefugeemortalityijPkthenumberofrefugeesfromcountryitocountryjijGthecostofrefugeesfromcountryitocountryj()tjPotheinstantresourcesofsafe-havencountry()tjPNthenumberofrefugeesthatthesafe-havencountrycanhold()tjPKtheinstantnumberofthesafe-havencountryjreceivedijHaThedegreeofdiscrepancyonenvironmentandClimatebetweenrefugee-exportingiandthesafe-havencountryjijHbThedegreeofdiscrepancyonreligionandlawbetweenexportingcountryeconomiciandthesafe-havencountryjijNGThedegreeofdiscrepancyoneconomicandculturebetweenrefugee-exportingiandthesafe-havencountryjijHpthetransfermatrixofrefugeesfromtheircountryitosafe-havencountryjijWatheconflictbetweenrefugee-exportingcountryiandthesafe-havencountryjijPdTherelationshipbetweentwosafe-havencountry(iandj)Team#46634page3of22Task1:
MetricsofrefugeecrisesWeconsidertheinfluencefactorsofthemovementofrefugeesfromthreeaspects.Firstly,inordertoarriveattheasylumsafely,thediathesis,whichincludespsychologicaldiathesis,physicaldiathesis,theculturalaccomplishmentofrefugeesandtherefugeeschoiceofroutes,issignificant.Beingrefugeesisacruelthing,whichisaheavyblow.Ifrefugeesdonothavegreatpsychologicaldiathesis,theymightbebreakdownduringthemovement.Therefore,theycannotarriveattheasylumsafely.Itwillbehardforthemtocompletethemigrationaswelliftherefugeesarenothealthyenoughsincethemovementalwaysbehardandtakingalongtime.Moreover,Intheprocessofmovement,refugeeswillgothroughmanydifferentcountriesandregions,thusabetterunderstandingofthecountrieslanguage,customsandculturalcharacteristicswillsurelyhelptoincreasetheprobabilityoffleeingsuccessfully.Asforrefugees,thereisoftenmorethanoneroute.Therefore,thechoiceofroute,whichismadebyrefugees,influencesthesuccessrateofmovement.Choosingasafeandsuitableroutewillincreasethesuccessrateofmovement.Ontheotherhand,oncetherefugeeschoseanunsuitabledangerousrouteforthemselves,itwouldreducethesuccessrateofmovement.1
(1)
(2)(3)(4)(5)111111FfFFFFF
(1)
(1)1Fmeanspsychologicaldiathesisofrefugeesdiathesis
(2)1Fmeansphysicaldiathesisofrefugeesdiathesis(3)1Fmeanstheculturalaccomplishmentofrefugeesdiathesis(4)1Fmeanstherefugeeschoiceofrouteofrefugeesabilities(5)1FmeansthewealthofrefugeeWerankthefivefactorsoftherefugeeswith1to10representingcapacityfromlowtohigh,thenwehave
(1)
(2)(3)(4)(5)1111121131141151FFFFFF
(2)Forthecontributionofthesefivefactors,weareinaccordancewiththeactualsituation,thenwehave
(1)
(2)(3)(4)(5)1111110.60.80.40.30.2FFFFFF(3)Secondly,asfortheinfluenceofthecountriesandregionswheretheystoppedover,webelievefactorsofrefugees,includingthereligiouspolicyofcountries,thenumberofrefugeesthecountriescanaccommodate,thecountrysfinancialandmaterialresources,thenationalpoliciesonrefugee.Meanwhile,thereligiouspolicyofthecountryhasagreatinfluence,becausealargepartofrefugeesmovementisforreligiouspersecution.Andthenumberofrefugeesthecountrycanaccommodateinfluencesthemovementofrefugeesaswell2.ForTeam#46634page4of22thecurrentsituationofhighlydevelopedinformationtechnology,mostoftherefugeeswillchoosethebestescaperoute,whichisthemostpopularroute.Inthiscase,thecountrieswhichareonthemostpopularroutewillundertakemorepres
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