IMF高级宏观经济学研修班CT1405MMF-L08ManagingI.pptx
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IMF高级宏观经济学研修班CT1405MMF-L08ManagingI.pptx
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L-8PartII.ManagingCapitalFlowsinChina,PresenterRayBrooks,JointChina-IMFTrainingProgramCourseonMacroeconomicManagementandFinancialSectorIssuesCT14.01,ThistrainingmaterialisthepropertyoftheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)andisintendedforuseinIMFInstitutecourses.AnyreuserequiresthepermissionoftheIMFInstitute.,Outline,Whatwastheexperiencewithcapitalflows?
Howwerecapitalflowsmanagedinthepast?
Werecapitalcontrolseffective?
Whatwillhappentowithcapitalflowswithliberalization?
ExperienceofliberalizationinothercountriesBenefitsandrisksofopeningthecapitalaccountinChinaStepstowardsuccessfulliberalizationinChina,ChinasExperience:
Forexinflowsweresizable,butmainlyfromthecurrentaccountsurplus.,thecapitalandfinancialaccountwasalsoinsurplusandvolatile.,FDIflowswerelarge,FDIandotherCapitalFlowswerelargeinaglobalcontexttoo,GrossCapitalFlowswerealsolarge,Howwerecapitalflowsmanagedinthepast?
Acombinationofpoliciesmanagedtheflows:
Exchangeratepolicy(gradualappreciation)SterilizationofforexinflowsReserverequirementsonbanksCapitalcontrolsImprovedprudentialandsupervisorypolicies,NominalandRealEffectiveExchangeRatesappreciatedsince2005reform,Sterilization:
OfficialReservesincreasedconsiderably,Withconsiderablevariationintheextentofforexintervention,Thereserverequirementonbankswasincreasedtomanagetheliquidityimpactofforexinflows,CapitalAccountcontrolswereeasedinpastdecadebutremainrestrictive,Chinaremainsrelativelyclosed,Werecapitalcontrolseffective?
Flowsdonotappearsensitivetointerestratedifferential,FranziskaOhnsorgeandStevenBarnett,IMFMarch,2013,ButsensitivetoUSinterestrate,FranziskaOhnsorgeandStevenBarnett,IMF2013,Whatwillhappentocapitalflowswithliberalization?
Whathappenedinothercountries?
20+episodesofcapitalaccountliberalization(KaminskyandSchmukler,2003)inAMandEMsince1979.Theincreaseinnetcapitalinflowsfromtheyearbeforetotheyearafterliberalizationdependedon:
StateofdomesticversusworldbusinesscycleTimesincefinancialsectorliberalizationGrossinternationalassetsandliabilitiesincreasedonaverageby19-20percentagepointsofGDPoverthefollowingfiveyears.,Portfolioinflowsincreasedand.,BayoumiandOhnsorge,IMFWP2013,asdidotherinvestmentflows.,BayoumiandOhnsorge,IMFWP2013,Capitalaccountliberalizationwasalmostalwaysfollowedbyincreasesingrossforeignassets,BayoumiandOhnsorge,IMFWP2013,.andoftenalsoincreasesingrossforeignliabilities.,BayoumiandOhnsorge,IMFWP2013,RecentIMFstudypredictsriseinChineseassetswithliberalizationofcapitalaccount,BayoumiandOhnsorge,IMFWP2013,Experienceofothercountries:
liberalizationoftenfollowedbyexchangerateorbankingcrisis,BayoumiandOhnsorge,IMFWP2013,Somecountrycases,Korea:
liberatedcapitalcontrolsbeforeexchangeliberalization:
ledtocurrencymismatchesonbalancesheetsand1997crisisIsrael:
Unsuccessful“bigbang”liberalizationin1977,largeinflowsthatreversed.Controlsreintroduced1yearslater.Subsequentreformbettermanaged.Sweden:
capitalaccountliberalizationin1989andfinancialliberalizationledtocreditboom.Couldnotdefendfixedexchangerate.Turkey:
capitalaccountliberalizationwithfiscaldominance:
destabilizingcapitalflowsandtwocrises(1994and2001).Emergingmarketswithmoreflexibleexchangerateshavegenerallyfaredbetterinfaceofexternalpressures(Chile,Peru,SouthAfrica),BenefitsofopeningthecapitalaccountinChina,BetterallocationofcapitalandriskdiversificationWideruseofRMBasinternationalcurrencyWouldhelprebalancegrowthawayfromrelianceonexportsandinvestment,withsupportingfinancialandexchangeratereformsWouldfacilitatesfinancialsectorreformanddevelopmentby:
ImprovingliquidityindomesticequitymarketsIntroductingcompetitionBankingsector,withforeignbankentrybringingbenefitstosaversandborrowersInsurancesectorcurrentlyprotected,wouldfacegreatercompetitionCapitalcontrolslesseffectiveovertimeinfaceofexpandedtradeandmoresophisticatedinvestors,RisksofopeningthecapitalaccountinChina,GrosscapitalflowscouldbelargeafterliberalizationPotentialproblems:
AssetbubblesCapitalflightCurrencyandmaturitymismatchesinbankandcorporatebalancesheetsProblemscouldleadtocrisisasseeninothercountriesUnderlinesneedforcautiousandintegratedapproachtoliberalization,withaccompanyingreforms,StepstowardsuccessfulCapitalAccountLiberalization(IMFA42012),Aimtoharnessbenefitsofopencapitalflowswhilemitigatingtherisks.SequencingimportantbutplansshouldbeflexibleandtunedtochangingcircumstancesSomeprerequisites:
ExchangeratereformgreaterflexibilitywouldreducecapitalflowsandallowforindependentmonetarypolicyNewmonetaryframeworkobjectivesofgrowth,inflationandfinancialstabilityRegulationandsupervisionimprovesupervision,regulation,andriskmonitoring,StepstowardCapitalAccountLiberalizationcont.,Interestrateliberalizationmovetomarket-determinedloananddepositratesshouldnotinvolvelooseningofmonetarypolicyFullliberalization,esp.short-termcapitalflows,waituntilbulkofabovereformsinplace,Usequalifiedforeignanddomesticinstitutionalinvestorframeworktograduallyopencapitalaccount,group(5minutediscussioningroupsof5or6andreportback),WhatarethemainrisksforChinawithliberalizationofthecapitalaccount?
Summary,ChinahasexperiencedsizablecapitalinflowsMacroimpactlimitedbysterilization,controlsandsomeappreciationofexchangerateAsgoalofliberalizationispursued:
ImportanttolearnfromothersexperiencewherecrisesfollowedliberalizationTakeanintegratedapproach,withaccompanyingstructuralreformsConsiderimplicationsforthemonetarypolicyframework(“impossibletrinity”again),
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