居民家庭储蓄相关外文文献Chinese household saving and dependent children Theory and evidence.docx
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居民家庭储蓄相关外文文献Chinese household saving and dependent children Theory and evidence.docx
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居民家庭储蓄相关外文文献ChinesehouseholdsavinganddependentchildrenTheoryandevidence
居民家庭储蓄相关外文文献翻译中英文
英文
Chinesehouseholdsavinganddependentchildren:
Theoryandevidence
StevenLugauer
Abstract
Thispaperexaminestheimpactoffamilysizeonhouseholdsaving.Wefirststudyatheoretical life-cyclemodel thatincludesfinitelifetimesandsavingforretirementandinwhichparentscareabouttheconsumptionbytheirdependentchildren.Themodelimpliesanegativerelationshipbetweenthenumberofdependentchildreninthefamilyandthehousehold savingrate.Then,wetestthemodel'simplicationsusingnewsurveydataonhouseholdfinancesinChina.Weusethedifferentialenforcementoftheone-childpolicyacrosscountiestoaddressthepossibleendogeneitybetweenhouseholdsavingandfertilitydecisionsinatwo-stageleastsquares Tobitregression.WefindthatChinesefamilieswithfewerdependentchildrenhavesignificantlyhighersavingrates.Thedatayieldsseveraladditionalinsightsonhouseholdsavingpatterns.Householdswithcollege-agechildrenhavelowersavingrates,andhouseholdsresidinginurbanareashavehighersavingratesandalowerratioofeducationexpenditurestoincome.However,havinganadditionalchildreducessavingratesmoreforhouseholdsinurbanareasthaninruralareas.Ourregressionsalsoindicatethatsavingratesvarywithageandtendtobehigherforhouseholdswithmoreworkers,highereducation,betterhealth,andmoreassets.
Keywords:
China,Householdsaving,Demographics,Overlappinggenerations
Introduction
ThispaperpresentsevidencesupportingthehypothesisthatthedecreaseindependentchildrenwithinChinesefamilieshasledtoanincreaseinhousehold savingrates.Weestimatetherelationshipbetweensavingandfamilysizebyapplyingstandardregressiontechniquestodatafromanewhousehold-levelsurvey(theChinaHouseholdFinanceSurvey).Thestrongresponseof fertilityrates tofamily-planningpolicies(e.g.theone-childpolicy)inChinaallowsustoaddressthepotentialendogeneitybetweensavingandbirthdecisions.Specifically,weinstrumentforthenumberofdependentchildreninthehouseholdwiththecountylevelnumberofbirthsbecauseenforcementofthefamily-planningpolicieshasvariedacrossgeographicregions.Thus,weregresshouseholdsavingontheinstrumentednumberofchildren(andadditionalcontrolvariables)atthehouseholdlevelviaatwo-stage Tobitregression.Ourmainfindingisthatfamilieswithfewerdependentchildrensavesignificantlymore.
Uncoveringthedeterminantsofhouseholdsavingis,ofcourse,animportanttopicingeneral,andChinesesaving,inparticular,hasbeenreceivingconsiderableattention.China'shouseholdsavingratehasexplodedinrecentyears,andthissavinghashelpedcreateinvestmentledgrowthinChina.ExcessChinesesavinghasflowedtowardssafeassetsindevelopedcountries.Hence,policymakersbothinChinaandabroadwouldliketounderstandthefactorsbehindthehighsavingrate.Lookingforward,accumulatedhouseholdassetsmayhelpChinacopewithitsrapidlyagingpopulation.
The life-cyclehypothesis isaleadingcandidateforexplainingChina'shighhouseholdsavingrate.1 ModiglianiandCao(2004) wasthefirstpaperempiricallyshowingthecorrelationbetweenChina'sagestructureandsavingrateintheaggregatedtimeseriesdata. Curtis,Lugauer,andMark(2015) developastructural life-cyclemodel ofhouseholdsavingdecisionstoillustratethetheoreticalconnectionsbetweendemographicsandsavings,and,throughaseriesofmodelsimulations,theyshowthatthedemographiceffectonChina'saggregatesavingrateisquantitativelylarge.Webuildoff Curtisetal.(2015) byexaminingtheimplicationsofalife-cyclebasedmodelforsavingbehaviorinthecrosssection(i.e.microdata).Wefocusonthemainimplicationfromthemodel:
householdsavingdecreaseswithfamilysize.
In Section2,wepresentasimplifiedversionofthemodelfrom Curtisetal.(2015).Thekeymodelingredientsincludefinitelifetimes,savingforretirement,andthatparentscareabouttheconsumptionoftheirdependentchildren.Theexplicitvaluationofchildren'sconsumptionenterstheparentalutilityfunctionwiththefunctionalformfrom BarroandBecker(1989).Thestructuralmodelhasstarkimplicationsfortherelationshipbetweenthenumberofdependentchildreninthefamilyandhouseholdsavingbehavior.Therefore,ourempiricalregressionsactasatestofthelife-cyclehypothesisofhouseholdsavingbehavior.
Thelife-cyclemodelmotivatesourbasicresearchquestionastowhetherthenumberofchildreninahouseholdaffectssavingdecisions,butthedataallowustoexamineadditionalcontrolvariables,includingthecharacteristicsofthehouseholdhead(age,education, riskaversion,andhealth),thenumberofelderlypeopleinthehome,andhouseholdassets.Ourempiricalstrategy,then,istoleveragethepolicydriven(andthereforeplausiblyexogenous)differencesinthenumberofchildrentoestimatetheeffectoffamilysizeonhouseholdsaving,whilecontrollingfortheseotherfactors.Thekeyidentificationassumptionisthattheenforcementoffamily-planningpolicies(asmeasuredbycounty-levelbirthrates)affectshouseholdsavingdecisionsonlythroughthefertilitychannel.
Theempiricalresultssupporttheimplicationsforsavingfromthestructuralmodel.Householdsavingisdecreasinginfamilysize,asmeasuredbythenumberofdependentchildren.Theestimatedcoefficientsarelargeandstatisticallysignificantatthe1%level.Thus,ourmainfindingisinlinewiththemodel'spredictionthatfewerchildrenincreasessaving.Note,though,afewrelatedtheories(inparticular, Choukhmane,Coeurdacier,andJin(2017) and İmrohoroğluandZhao(2017a))existthatalsopredictthenegativeimpactofchildrenonhouseholdsavingrates.Wediscussthesealternativeexplanationsfurtherbelow.
Inourregressions,thecoefficientestimatesforthecontrolvariableshavetheexpectedsigns.Wefindthathouseholdswithhighereducationlevelssavemoreonaverage.Poorhealthisassociatedwithlowersavingrates.Familieswithmoreworkershavehighersavings,andhouseholdsavingvariesbyage.
Thedataallowustoexaminesavingbehavioralongseveraladditionaldimensions.First,weexaminetherelationshipwithnonlinearspecificationsintermsofthefirstborn,second,andthirdormore.Wefindthelargesteffectfromthefirst-bornchild.Wealsoexaminetheeducationexpendituredata.Householdswithcollegeagechildrenspendabouttwiceasmuchoneducationcomparedtohouseholdswithchildrenbelowcollegeage.Householdswithcollegeagechildrenhavesignificantlylowersavingrates.Inaddition,forthegroupofhouseholdswhospendmoreontheirchildren,havingonelesschildincreasestheirsavingbymorethanforhouseholdsspendinglessontheirchildren.Theseresultsarenoteworthy,sincethestructuralmodelalsoimpliesdifferentsavingbehaviorduetotheparent'spreferencesoverprovidingfortheirchildren.
Thehouseholdsinurbanareasspendanaverageof1/3moreoneducation;however,urbanhouseholdsstillhavehighersavingratesthanruralhouseholdsduetoalowerratioofeducationexpendituretoincome.Interestingly,havinganadditionalchildreducesthesavingratemoreforhouseholdsinurbanareasthaninruralareas.Wefindasimilarpatternwhencomparinghouseholdswithatleastoneparentemployedinastateownedenterpriseorgovernmentagencyversushouseholdswithnofamilymembersemployedinthepublicsector.
Alife-cyclemodelofhouseholdsaving
Thissectionpresentsastructural life-cyclemodel ofhouseholdsavingdecisions.Themodelrepresentsasimplificationoftheframeworkemployedin Curtisetal.(2015) and Curtis,Lugauer,andMark(2017) tostudytheeffectofdemographicchangesonaggregatehousehold savingrates overtimeacrossseveralcountries.ThemodelmotivatesourreducedformempiricalregressionsbasedonChinesehousehold-leveldata.Themaintake-awayfromthemodelisthathouseholdsavingdecreaseswithfamilysize.
Householdsmakeconsumptionandsavingdecisionstakinginterestratesandwagesasgiven. Laborsupplyisinelastic,andfamilysize(demographics)isexogenous.WethinkthisassumptionisreasonablegiventheevolutionoftheChineseeconomyinregardstofamily-planningpolicies.Plus,thisassumptionmapsintoourempiricalidentificationstrategy.
Generationsoverlap,buteachagentlivesforonly3periods.Intheinitialperiodoflife,however,agentsaredependentchildrenandmakenodecisions.Themaindeparturefromastandard2-periodutilitymaximizationproblemistheinclusionofchildren'sconsumptionintheparentalutilityfunction(viaBarro-Beckerpreferences)inthemiddleperiodoflife.Agentsretireinthefinalperiodoflifeandnolongersupportchildren.
Dataanddescriptivestatistics
WebasetheempiricalanalysisondatafromtheChinaHouseholdFinanceSurvey(CHFS)conductedbytheSouthwesternUniversityofFinanceandEconomicsinChina.TheCHFScollectsdetailedinformationbienniallyonhouseholds'demographiccharacteristics,assetsandliabilities,insuranceandsocialwelfare,andincomeandexpenditures.Thesurveyisnew,andweprimarilyuseinformationfrom2013.Thesurveywasalsoconductedin2011,butthe2011sampleisconsiderablysmaller.7 Weusethe2011sampletoconstructapaneldataset(bymatchinghouseholdsacrossthetwosamples)inarobustnesscheckreportedbelow.
TheCHFSdatasetisparticularlysuitedtoourpurposesbecauseitcontainsinformationonalargesampleoffamilieswithyoungchildrenandcoversmostofChina,bothurbanandruralareas.Inaddi
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