美国制造业报告.docx
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美国制造业报告.docx
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美国制造业报告
Manufacturing’sWake-UpCall
AnewstudyshowshowthedecisionsmadetodaybygoodsproducersandpolicymakerswillshapeU.S.competitivenesstomorrow.
by ArvindKaushal, ThomasMayor,and PatriciaRiedl
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IllustrationbyDoucinPierre
AdebateoverthefutureofU.S.manufacturingisintensifying.OptimistspointtotherelativelycheapdollarandtheshrinkingwagegapbetweenChinaandtheU.S.asreasonsthemanufacturingsectorcouldcomebacktolife,boostingU.S.competitivenessandrevivingthefortunesoftheAmericanmiddleclass.WheneverproductionstatisticsintheU.S.surge,itseemstobolsterthathope;asNewYorkTimes columnistandNobellaureatePaulKrugmanputitinMay2011,“Manufacturingisoneofthebrightspotsofagenerallydisappointingrecovery.”
Butthenwhendisappointingeconomicgrowthindicatorsarereleased,thepessimistsweighin.TheyarguethattheU.S.haspermanentlylostitsmanufacturingcompetitivenessinmanysectorstoChinaandothercountries,thatthesectorisstilldecliningafteryearsofoffshoringandneglect,andthatitmightneverreturntoitsroleasthelinchpinoftheU.S.economy.
Boththeoptimistsandthepessimistsarepartiallycorrect.U.S.manufacturingisatamomentoftruth.Currently,U.S.factoriescompetitivelyproduceabout75percentoftheproductsthatthenationconsumes.Aseriesofidentifiablesmartactionsandchoicesbybusinessleaders,educators,andpolicymakerscouldleadtoarobust,manufacturing-driveneconomicfutureandpushthatfigureupto95percent.Alternatively,iftheU.S.manufacturingsectorremainsneglected,itsoutputcouldfallbyhalf,meetinglessthan40percentofthenation’sdemand,andU.S.manufacturingcapabilitiescouldthenerodepastthepointofnoreturn.
Thosefindingsemergefromarecentsector-by-sectoranalysisofU.S.industrialcompetitiveness,alongwithasurveyof200manufacturingexecutivesandexperts,conductedbyBooz&CompanyandtheUniversityofMichigan’sTauberInstituteforGlobalOperations.(SoresearcherscouldbestanalyzetherelationshipbetweenU.S.employmentandthefutureofmanufacturing,plantslocatedintheUnitedStateswerecountedasAmerican,regardlessofwherethecompanythatownedthemisheadquartered.)Thestudies—whichincludedcomparisonstosimilarBooz&CompanystudiesofChinaandSwitzerland—foundthattheU.S.hasamuchmoreproductivemanufacturingbasethanmanypeoplethink.Butnosinglecountry,notevenChinaortheU.S.,canclaimtobethefactoryoftheworld,inthewaytheUnitedStateswasafterWorldWarII.
Instead,fortheforeseeablefuture,manufacturingwilllargelyberegional.Tobesure,exportsplayacriticalroleinanystrongeconomy,andaswe’llsee,aglobalplay(includingoffshoring)canbeviable,especiallywhentherearechallengesathome.Butformanymanufacturers,economicsandmarketdynamicsincreasinglysuggestthattheylocatefactoriesclosetotheirmajormarkets,includingtheUnitedStates.Thistypeofregion-orientedfootprintisaclearwaytoprovideadequatescaleandvolume,minimizetransportationandlogisticscosts,increasemarketresponsivenessandinnovation,andcustomizeproductsfortheuniquepreferencesofdifferentregionsandcultures.
Iffactorylaborcostsandcurrencyrateswerethesoleenablersofmanufacturingsuccess,thentheWestcouldnotcompetewithemergingnationsoroffshoring.Moreandmore,though,thesefactorsplayasmallerpartinmanufacturingdecisions.Fourotherconsiderations,allmorecomplex,drivemanufacturers’choicesaboutwheretoplaceandexpandfactories:
1.Theskilllevelandqualityoffactoryemployees,especiallyforhigh-techfacilities.
2.Thepresenceofhigh-impactclusters,inwhichmanycompaniescanlearnfromoneanotherandinnovatemorereadily.
3.Accesstonearbycountrieswithemergingconsumermarketsandlower-costlabor(fortheU.S.,thismeansbuildingafuturewithMexico).
4.Areasonablycompetitiveregulatoryandtaxenvironment(fortheU.S.,thismeanssimplifyingandstreamliningthecurrenttaxandregulatorystructure).
WillU.S.businessleadersandpolicymakersrisetothechallengeandcreatetheconditionsthatwouldsupportmanufacturing?
Orwilltheyfritterawaytheopportunitynowbeingpresentedtothem?
WhyManufacturingMatters
AstradepolicyexpertandauthorClydePrestowitzpointsout,manufacturingiscriticaltoprosperityforseveralreasons:
itseconomiesofscale,impactoninnovation,andmultipliereffectontherestoftheeconomy.(See“TheCaseforIntelligentIndustrialPolicy,”byArtKleiner,ArvindKaushal,andThomasMayor, s+b,Autumn2011.)IntheUnitedStates,manufacturingdirectlyaccountsfor11percentofthenation’sGDP:
anabsolutefigureofUS$1.47trillion,largerthanSpain’sentiredomesticproduct.Whenalleconomicactivityexpresslylinkedtomanufacturingisaccountedfor—includingequipmentmaintenance,transportation,scientificandtechnicalservices,andconstruction—theshareofGDPattributabletomanufacturinggrowsto15percent.ThatmeansoneinsevenU.S.private-sectorjobs,or13.5percent,isdirectlylinkedtomanufacturing.Thesector’sshareofGDPincreasestoasmuchas25percentwhensecond-orderlinkagessuchasretailsalesnearplants,systemsdevelopment,andlegalservicesareincluded.
Historically,manufacturedgoodsaremoretradeablethanothercategories.Thus,astrongmanufacturingbaseisessentialtoreducingtheU.S.tradedeficit,whichhit$497billionin2010andisanunnervingdragonGDP.Unlessstepsaretakentorevitalizemanufacturing,upto50percentofthe“valueadd”oftheU.S.economy—thevalueofmanufacturedgoodsbeyondtheirrawmaterialcosts—isatriskofdisappearing.Ifthathappened,theU.S.tradedeficitwouldtop$1trillion,atroublinglevelforanycountryseekingeconomicgrowth.
Perhapstheleastunderstoodbenefitofmanufacturingishowcloselyitisrelatedtoinnovationindesign,productdevelopment,qualitycontrol,andfactoryprocesses.In2008,67percentofallprivate-sectorR&Dwasconductedbymanufacturingcompanies,accordingtotheNationalScienceFoundation.Andfrom2006to2008,22percentofU.S.manufacturingcompaniesreportedaneworsignificantlyimprovedproduct,service,orprocess,comparedwith8percentofnonmanufacturingcompanies.Innovationpropelsimprovementsinworkeroutput,capitalflow,usageofmaterialsandenergy,energyconservation,andothercomponentsofproductivity.Increasedproductivity,inturn,leadstofastereconomicgrowthandahigherstandardofliving.Between1987and2008,productivitygrewintheU.S.manufacturingsector65percentfasterthaninbusinessasawhole.(SeeExhibit1.)
ManyU.S.manufacturingleadersarewellawareoftherolethatinnovationplaysinanation’seconomy,andintheirownperformance.“Thelaborcomponent—theneedtochoosewheretosetupmanufacturingfacilitiesbasedprimarilyonwherethewagesarecheapest—isnotthemajordriveranymore,”saysEricSpiegel,presidentandCEOofSiemensCorporation.“Instead,otherfactors—accesstoskilledlabor,moderninfrastructure,theabilitytodriveinnovationwithworld-classR&D,andcapabilitieslikenewmanufacturingtechnologiesorinnovativeleanproductionsystems—propeldecisionsaboutnewfactories.TheseplaywelltotheU.S.’sstrengths.Sowe’readdingnewmanufacturingintheU.S.”
America’sLostDecade
TheconventionalwisdomsaysthatthedeclineofU.S.manufacturingbeganinthelate1970s,whenJapaneseautomakersandelectronicscompaniesoutpacedtheirU.S.rivalsindesign,quality,efficiency,andcosts.Butacloserexaminationofthehistoricaldatacovering1980through2010presentsasomewhatdifferentpicture.
Duringthe1980sand1990s,althoughtherewerehigh-profileproblemsinspecificsectorssuchasautosandtextiles,U.S.factoriesasawholeheldtheirown.Evenmanufacturingemploymentheldsteady.Between1980and2000,productionjobsfellbyonly0.5percentannually;infact,theU.S.outperformedbothGermanyandJapaninthevalueofmanufacturingoutputasapercentageofglobalproduction.(SeeExhibit2.)
However,inthe2000s,U.S.manufacturingoutputasapercentageofglobalproductionfelldramatically.Theratioofexportstoimports,acriticalsignofmanufacturingviability,alsofell.Thenumberofmanufacturingjobsdroppedaswell,by4.3percentperyear,and3.4percentofnon-productionjobswereeliminatedannually.(SeeExhibit3.)ManyfactorscontributedtoarelentlesslytroublingdecadeforU.S.manufacturing.Capitalinvestmentinnewandoldplantsslowed,droppingbelowreplacementlevels.Insomeindustries,innovationlagged,andsomeU.S.companiesfacedashortageofcriticalskills.Therapidpaceofglobalizationandcompetitionfromemergingeconomiesexacerbatedtheseeffects.
Still,thedatashowsclearlythatU.S.manufacturingasawholehasgreatpotentialtorebound.Whenconsideredsectorbysector,manyU.S.companiescanandshouldbethesupplierofchoiceforthevastmajorityofgoodssoldinNorthAmerica—andsomecanstillbeaprimarysourceofproductionforglobalmarkets.Thisresiliencewasevidentinthesurveyofmanufacturingprofessionals;morethan65percentofrespondentssaidthatitwasunlikelytheywouldstopinvestinginnewU.S.manufacturingassetsandtechnologiesby2025.ManyofthemareshiftingmanufacturingactivitiesbacktoNorthAmericafromAsiaandotheroffshorelocations.
FourKindsofIndustries
Withunitlaborcostsplayingasmallerpartinmanufacturingdecisions,otherfactors—includingtalentavailability,marketaccessibility,i
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