M19KRUG89289EIMC19.docx
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M19KRUG89289EIMC19.docx
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M19KRUG89289EIMC19
OverviewofSectionIV:
InternationalMacroeconomicPolicy
SectionIVofthetextconsistsoffourchapters:
Chapter19 InternationalMonetarySystems:
AnHistoricalOverview
Chapter20 OptimumCurrencyAreasandtheEuropeanExperience
Chapter21 FinancialGlobalization:
OpportunityandCrisis
Chapter22 DevelopingCountries:
Growth,Crisis,andReform
1 SectionIVOverview
Thisfinalsectionofthebook,whichdiscussesinternationalmacroeconomicpolicy,provideshistoricalandinstitutionalbackgroundtocomplementthetheoreticalpresentationoftheprevioussection.ThesechaptersalsoprovideanopportunityforstudentstohonetheiranalyticskillsandintuitionbyapplyingandextendingthemodelslearnedinSectionIIItoarangeofcurrentandhistoricalissues.
Thefirsttwochaptersofthissectiondiscussvariousinternationalmonetaryarrangements.Thesechaptersdescribetheworkingsofdifferentexchangeratesystemsthroughthecentralthemeofinternalandexternalbalance.Themodeldevelopedintheprevioussectionprovidesageneralframeworkforanalysisofgoldstandard,reservecurrency,managedfloating,andfloatingexchange-ratesystems.
Chapter19chroniclestheevolutionoftheinternationalmonetarysystemfromthegoldstandardof
1870–1914,throughtheinterwaryears,anduptoandincludingthepostwarBrettonWoodsperiod.Thesehistoricalepisodesareputintothecontextoftheinternationaleconomicstrilemma,theobservationthatyoucansimultaneouslyachievetwo,butneverthreeofthefollowingpolicygoals:
exchangeratestability,independentmonetarypolicy,andopencapitalmarkets.
Thechapterdiscussestheprice-specie-flowmechanismofadjustmentinthecontextofthediscussion
ofthegoldstandard.Conditionsforinternalandexternalbalancearepresentedthroughdiagrammaticanalysisbasedupontheshort-runmacroeconomicmodelofChapter17.Thisanalysisillustratesthestrengthsandweaknessesofalternativefixedexchangeratearrangements.Thechapteralsodrawsuponearlierdiscussionsofbalanceofpaymentscrisestomakecleartheinterplaybetween“fundamentaldisequilibrium”andspeculativeattacks.ThereisadetailedanalysisoftheBrettonWoodssystemthatincludesacasestudyoftheexperienceduringitsdeclinebeginninginthemid-1960sandculminating
withitscollapsein1973.
Europe’sswitchtoasinglecurrency,theeuro,isthesubjectofChapter20,andprovidesaparticularexampleofasinglecurrencysystem.ThechapterdiscussesthehistoryoftheEuropeanMonetarySystemanditsprecursors.TheearlyyearsoftheE.M.S.weremarkedbycapitalcontrolsandfrequentrealignments.
Bytheendofthe1980s,however,therewasmarkedinflationconvergenceamongE.M.S.members,
fewrealignmentsandtheremovalofcapitalcontrols.Despiteaspeculativecrisisin1992–1993,leaderspressedonwithplansfortheestablishmentofasingleEuropeancurrencyasoutlinedintheMaastrichtTreatywhichcreatedtheEconomicandMonetaryUnion(EMU).ThesinglecurrencywasviewedasanimportantpartoftheEC1992initiativewhichcalledforthefreeflowwithinEuropeoflabor,capital,goods,andservices.Thesinglecurrency,theeuro,waslaunchedonJanuary1,1999with11originalparticipants.Thesecountrieshavecededmonetaryauthoritytoasupranationalcentralbankandconstrainedtheirfiscalpolicywithagreementsonconvergencecriteriaandthestabilityandgrowthpact.Asinglecurrencyimposescostsaswellasconfersbenefits.Thetheoryofoptimumcurrencyareassuggestsconditionswhichaffecttherelativebenefitsofasinglecurrency.Thechapterprovidesawaytoframe
thisanalysisusingtheGG-LLdiagramwhichcomparesthegainsandlossesfromasinglecurrency.Finally,thechapterexaminestheprospectsoftheEUasanoptimalcurrencyareacomparedtothe
UnitedStatesandconsidersthefuturechallengesEMUwillface.
TheinternationalcapitalmarketisthesubjectofChapter21.Thischapterdrawsananalogybetweenthegainsfromtradearisingfrominternationalportfoliodiversificationandinternationalgoodstrade.There
isdiscussionofinstitutionalstructuresthathavearisentoexploitthesegains.Thechapterdiscusses
theEurocurrencymarket,theregulationofoffshorebanking,andtheroleofinternationalfinancialsupervisorycooperation.Thechapterexaminespolicyissuesoffinancialmarkets,thepolicytrilemmaoftheincompatibilityoffixedrates,independentmonetarypolicy,andcapitalmobilityaswellasthetensionbetweensupportingfinancialstabilityandcreatingamoralhazardwhenagovernmentintervenesinfinancialmarkets.Thechapteralsoconsidersevidenceofhowwelltheinternationalcapitalmarkethasperformedbyfocusingonissuessuchastheefficiencyoftheforeignexchangemarketandtheexistence
ofexcessvolatilityofexchangerates.Thechapteralsoincludesathoroughdiscussionofhowincreasedcapitalmobilityandthedifficultyofregulatinginternationalbankingcontributedtothe2007–2009financialcrisis.
Chapter22discussesissuesfacingdevelopingcountries.Thechapterbeginsbyidentifyingcharacteristicsoftheeconomiesofdevelopingcountries,characteristicsthatincludeundevelopedfinancialmarkets,pervasivegovernmentinvolvement,andadependenceoncommodityexports.Themacroeconomicanalysisofpreviouschaptersagainprovidesaframeworkforanalyzingrelevantissues,suchasinflation
inorcapitalflowstodevelopingcountries.Borrowingbydevelopingcountriesisdiscussedasanattempttoexploitgainsfromintertemporaltradeandisputinhistoricalperspective.LatinAmericancountries’problemswithinflationandsubsequentattemptsatreformaredetailed.Finally,theEastAsianeconomicmiracleisrevisited(itisdiscussedinChapter10),andtheEastAsianfinancialcrisisisexamined.Thisfinaltopicprovidesanopportunitytodiscusspossiblereformsoftheworld’sfinancialarchitecture.
Chapter19
InternationalMonetarySystems:
AnHistoricalOverview
2 ChapterOrganization
MacroeconomicPolicyGoalsinanOpenEconomy
InternalBalance:
FullEmploymentandPriceLevelStability
ExternalBalance:
TheOptimalLeveloftheCurrentAccount
ClassifyingMonetarySystems:
TheOpen-EconomyTrilemma
InternationalMacroeconomicPolicyundertheGoldStandard,1870–1914
OriginsoftheGoldStandard
ExternalBalanceUndertheGoldStandard
ThePrice-Specie-FlowMechanism
TheGoldStandard“RulesoftheGame”:
MythandReality
InternalBalanceUndertheGoldStandard
Box:
HumeversustheMercantilists
CaseStudy:
ThePoliticalEconomyofExchangeRateRegimes:
ConflictOverAmerica’sMonetaryStandardDuringthe1890s
TheInterwarYears,1918–1939
TheFleetingReturntoGold
InternationalEconomicDisintegration
CaseStudy:
TheInternationalGoldStandardandtheGreatDepression
TheBrettonWoodsSystemandtheInternationalMonetaryFund
GoalsandStructureoftheIMF
ConvertibilityandtheExpansionofPrivateCapitalFlows
SpeculativeCapitalFlowsandCrises
AnalyzingPolicyOptionsforReachingInternalandExternalBalance
MaintainingInternalBalance
MaintainingExternalBalance
Expenditure-ChangingandExpenditure-SwitchingPolicies
TheExternalBalanceProblemoftheUnitedStatesUnderBrettonWoods
CaseStudy:
TheEndofBrettonWoods,WorldwideInflation,andtheTransitiontoFloatingRates
TheMechanicsofImportedInflation
Assessment
TheCaseforFloatingExchangeRates
MonetaryPolicyAutonomy
Symmetry
ExchangeRatesasAutomaticStabilizers
ExchangeRatesandExternalBalance
CaseStudy:
TheFirstYearsofFloatingRates,1973–1990
MacroeconomicInterdependenceUnderaFloatingRate
CaseStudy:
TransformationandCrisisintheWorldEconomy
WhatHasBeenLearnedSince1973?
MonetaryPolicyAutonomy
Symmetry
TheExchangeRateasanAutomaticStabilizer
ExternalBalance
TheProblemofPolicyCoordination
AreFixedExchangeRatesEvenanOptionforMostCountries?
Summary
APPENDIXTOCHAPTER19:
InternationalPolicyCoordinationFailures
3 ChapterOverview
Thisisthefirstoffourinternationalmonetarypolicychapters.Thesechapterscomplementtheprecedingtheorychaptersinseveralways.Theyprovidethehistoricalandinstitutionalbackgroundstudentsrequiretoplacetheirtheoreticalknowledgeinausefulcontext.Thechaptersalsoallowstudents,throughstudyofhistoricalandcurrentevents,tosharpentheirgraspofthetheoreticalmodelsandtodeveloptheintuitionthosemodelscanprovide.(Applicationofthetheorytoeventsofcurrentinterestwillhopefullymotivatestudentstoreturntoearlierchaptersandmasterpointsthatmayhavebeenmissedonthefirstpass.)
Chapter19chroniclestheevolutionoftheinternationalmonetarysystemfromthegoldstandardof
1870–1914,throughtheinterwaryears,thepost-WorldWarIIBrettonWoodsregimethatendedinMarch1973,andthesystemofmanagedfloatingexchangeratesthathaveprevailedsince.Thecentralfocusofthechapteristhemannerinwhicheachsystemaddressed,orfailedtoaddress,therequirementsofinternalandexternalbalanceforitsparticipants.Acountryisininternalbalancewhenitsresourcesarefullyemployedandthereispricelevelstability.Externalbalanceimpliesanoptimaltimepathofthecurrentaccountsubjecttoitsbeingbalancedoverthelongrun.Otherfactorshavebeenimportantinthedefinitionofexternalbalanceatvarioustimes,andthesearediscussedinthetext.Thebasicdefinitionofexternalbalanceasanappropriatecurrent-accountlevel,however,seemstocaptureagoalthatmostpolicymakersshareregardlessoftheparticularcircumst
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