第六组宏观论文英语版.docx
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第六组宏观论文英语版.docx
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第六组宏观论文英语版
西南财经大学天府学院
2012级
宏观经济学论文
论文题目:
浅谈近年居民储蓄过快增长的原因及建议
小组:
宏观经济学08班第六组
所在学院:
西南财经大学天府学院
专业:
宏观经济学
指导教师:
刘恩栋
2013年10月
content
一.Thedomesticcurrentsituationofthesavings4
二.Thereasonofhouseholdsavingsincrease5
(一)Thesocialsecuritysystemisinadequate5
(二)thereareseveralinvestmentchannels,consciousnessofinvestingisnotstrong7
(三)Residents'consumptiontendtobelowandlittleofconsumptionvariety9
三.Tosolvethepolicyrecommendationsonthegrowthofhouseholdsavings10
(一)Thedevelopmentofstrongpeople'sconsumerconfidencecontinuedbalanceofChina'seconomy11
(二)Expandingthecoverageofsecuritysystem13
1.Aunifiedsocialsecuritymanagementmechanism,improvethemanagementlevel13
2.Toestablishasoundsocialsecuritysystem14
(三)Tobreakthesystembarriers,widentheinvestmentchannels,increasefinancialinnovation16
(四)Adjustmentofconsumptionstructure,makeconsumptiongrowth18
(五)Changingtheconceptofpersonalfinanceandenhanceresidents’investmentdesire19
四.Summaries20
Abstract
Infact,ourhouseholdsavingsrisesquicklyyears.Althoughthegovernmentmakesomemeasurestoencouragethehouseholdconsumptionandit’snotsignificant.ThehouseholdsavingsgrowthsagainsinceThePeople’sBankOfChinaannouncedthattheappreciationoftheRMBin2%on21July2005.Accordingtothetheoryofcrowdingout,thesavingsgrowthisadeteriorationofmacroeconomicinstitutionsinacertainsenseaftertheappreciationoftheRMB.Inthefaceofthisproblem,aeffectivesolutionistoperfectsocialsecuritysystemtoeliminateresidentspsychologicalbarrierandbroadeninvestmentchannels,enhanceliquidity,thusthecontinuousgrowthoftheeconomy.
Keywords:
householdsavings,socialsecurity,investmentchannels,theappreciationoftheRMB.
一.Thedomesticcurrentsituationofthesavings
(数据来源于中国统计局2006年至2011年统计年鉴)
AccordingtothedataoftheBureauofStatisticsinChinashowsusthetotalhouseholdsavingsdepositsis34trillionandmorethan2.1times2006untiltheendof2011.AftertheappreciationoftheRMB,theaspirationofresidentsbecamestrong,thesavingsdepositsincreased2trillionin2006,includingthetimedepositincrease1.1trillionmore,thecurrentsavingsaccountincreased1trillionmore.Nowadays,China'shouseholdsavingsstillshowedatrendofgrowthandstable,predictsthesavingsofresidentswilldevelopsteadilyandstable.ThemotiveofhouseholdsavingsinChinamainlycomposedofpension,childreneducationandhousing.ThisismotivatedbytheChinesepeopleandcultureandemphasisonfamily-relatedpension,whichwilldeterminethefutureoftheresidentswillincreasespending.
二.Thereasonofhouseholdsavingsincrease
(一)Thesocialsecuritysystemisinadequate
Accordingtothesocialsurvey,inChina,mostpeoplearesavinginordertopreventcontingencies.Butintheforeigncountries,becauseofthemorematuresocialsecuritysystem,residentsdonotworryaboutthefuturewillnotbeabletoaffordalife,savingswilllower.Andtheirsocialsecuritysystemprojectsettingsincludealmostbirth,oldage,sickness,death,injury,disabilityaspects,citizensfrombirthtodeathallstageshavebettersafeguards,countriesgenerallyadoptnationallegislation,andmakethesocialsecurityfundsintotheirsocialeconomicsystem,renderingthelegalsystem.Also,vigorouslydeveloppolicy,welfare,long-termlifeinsurance,sothatthesocialsecuritysystemmoreperfect.Becauseoftheestablishmentofthesocialsecuritysystemstartedlate,sotherearestillsomeaspectsoftheproblem.
(1)Socialsecuritysurfaceisrelativelynarrowstandardsoftreatmentvary.Thesocialsecuritysystemshouldbetheobjectofallmembersofsociety,sothatsocialsecuritytothewholeofsocietyreallyplaytheroleofsocialstabilitymechanism.Datashowthattheworldofsocialsecuritycoveragewas60%onaverage,moredevelopedsocialsecurityis70%.Butbytheconditionofourcountryandthestate’sfinancialconstraints,socialsecuritycoverageisessentiallylimitedtothetown,peasantslargeruralpopulationandthepopulationareexcludedfromthissystem,thesocialsecuritycoverageofonly30%.
(2)Aroundthevarioustypesofsocialsecurityfundgaplarger.China’ssocialsecuritysystem,theexistingfivetypes,namelypensionunemploymentmedicalworkinjuryandmaternityinsurance,which,sofar,onlythestatepensionfundtogivetransferpaymentsandsubsidies.Fortheunemploymentinsurancefund,inthefaceofahugenumberofunemployedpersons,thelimitedroleoftheunemploymentinsurancefundlittleroom.Butalsofordifferentregions,enjoyunemploymentinsurancestandardswhicharedifferent,resultinginregionaldisparities.Inaddition,formedical,workinjuryandmaternityinsurancefundtotakeoverthebasicbalancedpolicyisself-seeking,andiseventallypassed,therolecanbeimagined,socialsecurityfundregulatoryregimeandlegalmeasurestobeperfect,nouseoftheexistingsocialsecurityfundtobeauthoritativeregulatoryconstraints,areowed,misuse,misappropriation,interceptionsituationshaveoccurred,theseareregulatorymechanismssoundproblemsarising.
(3)BecauseofChinesesocialsecuritysystem,thereareproblems,manyofthemeasuresisnotperfect,people’slackofconfidenceinthefutureoflife,unabletocontroltheirownpublictoincreasesavingshavebecometheonlyoption.
(二)thereareseveralinvestmentchannels,consciousnessofinvestingisnotstrong
(数据来源于中国统计局2006年至2011年统计年鉴)
Therehavemanywayabouthowtousemoneyofacountryorafamily,suchasstocks,bonds,gold,realestate,overseascapitalmarketsandderivativefinancialproducts,andsoon.Onecountry(includingfamily)investmentchannelsandtheandthecountry'sinstitutions,notonlyeconomicdevelopmentandopeningtotheextent,andthedegreeofperfectionofthelegalsystemofthecountryconcerned.
Itiswellknownthateconomicdevelopmentmustbesupportedbyfinancial,whichshouldsoundbankingreformasaguide.DevelopmentandinnovationofChina’sbankingindustryalwayslagsbehindthepaceoffinancialinnovationandnationalpolicyhasledtobanksstilldonotsensitiveresponsetomarketsignals,investmentchannelsaremainlybankdeposits,Treasurybondsandstocks,inthecaseofthestockmarketdownturn,themarkethovered,residentsofinvestmentallthemoreataloss.
Inaddition,residentsinvestmentsinChinamainlyduetoweaksenseofaffectingit’sinvestment.First,incaseofnarrowinvestmentchannels,canbeslowerfortheresidents’investmentinproductdevelopment,thereisnogoodpublicity,sothatresidentsisnogoodpublicity,sothatresidentsdon’tevenknowwhatproductarenothemarkettoday.Secondistheideaofsocietyasawholehasnotformedaninvestmentforalongtimeandatmosphere,residentsindifferencetotheconceptofutilityfunds,theyhavemoney,theywanttosimplyputitinthebankorbuyTreasurybands,savingsanddebtrisk,yieldsandlongermaturities,alsoreducesthemobilityofthewholesocialcapital.
(三)Residents'consumptiontendtobelowandlittleofconsumptionvariety
(数据来源于中国统计局2006年至2011年统计年鉴)
Residentsconsumptionbehaviorreflectsandconsumptionconsumerspsychologyandwishes.Thatisconsumptionconsumersincomeexpectations,expendituresofautonomouspreferencesofautonomouspreferencesembodied.Inincomeundercertaincircumstances,householdconsumptionexpendituredependsontheconsumptiontendency.Higherpropensitytoresidentsmorereluctanttospend,moreconsumerspending,consumptiongrowthandfaster.Alongwiththetrendofdemographicageing,consumptiontendencywillcontinuetodecrease.
Fromthepicture,wecanseethatincomeisincreasing,butconsumptionhasnotchangedmuch,anddon’tknowmuchaboutotherinvestmentchannels,anddonotwanttotaketherisk,soitisstillusedinalotofmoneyinthebank.
三.Tosolvethepolicyrecommendationsonthegrowthofhouseholdsavings
Solvethesavingsgrowourresidents,severalaspectsneedtobe.First,toincreasetheincome;Second,wecanimprovethesocialsecuritysystem,removeanymenaceofpeople.Residentwanttohavedeposits,themostmaingoalistopreventfuturerisk,establishingaperfectsocialsecuritysystem,itcanmakethefutureresidentsfeelsecure,Thusmoretheywilltakemoneyoutofandinvestmentandconsumption.Inaddition,tobroadeninvestmentchannels,increasefinancialinnovation,adjustingconsumptionstructureandstimulateconsumptiongrowth,changingfinancialconceptsresidentsarealsoneeded.
(一)Thedevelopmentofstrongpeople'sconsumerconfidencecontinuedbalanceofChina'seconomy
Theeconomicdevelopmentlikeacardwiththegrowthofhouseholdsavings,butsavingsandaffectstheoperationofthemacroeconomy,isanimportantforcetopromoteeconomicdevelopment,thetwoarecloselylinked.Residentssavingtoolittle,notforeconomicdevelopmentespeciallytoprovidesufficientfundstoinvestinlarge-scaleequipment.Onthecontrary,theresidentssavingaretoomuch.Itwillreducetheconsumptiondemand.Wehavetoreducetheconsumptionofproductionandpromotefirstuse.Thusaffectingthegoodsorthemovementofcapital,willbethewholesocialeconomiccontraction.
Therefore,savingsmustbeappropriate.Thiscriterionistojudgetheresidentsinacertainperiodoftimesavingsisconducivetotheequilibriumofdemandandsupply.Therefore,mustlettheresidentshaveconfidenceintheexpectedincome,havetheabilitytoconsumeadequateincome.Theincomeofresidentsinourcountryatpresentisgenerallynothighitch,thehigh-gradecommoditiesonlythroughsavi
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