计量经济学stata英文论文.docx
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计量经济学stata英文论文.docx
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计量经济学stata英文论文
Graduatestoapplyforthequantitativeanalysisofchangesinnumberofgraduatestudents
一Topicsraised
Inthispaper,thetotalnumberofstudentsfromgraduatestudents(variable)multivariateanalysis(seebelow)specificanalysis,andcollectrelevantdata,modelbuilding,thisquantitativeanalysis.Thenumberofrelationsbetweentheschoolthetotalnumberofgraduatestudentswiththemajorfactors,accordingtothesizeofthevariousfactorsinthecoefficientinthemodelequations,analyzetheimportanceofvariousfactors,exactlywhatfactorsinchangesinthenumberofgraduatestudentsaspectsplayakeyroleinandchangesinthetrendforfuturegraduatestudentstoourproposal.
Themainfactorsaffectchangesinthetotalnumberofgraduatestudentsforstudentsareasfollows:
PercapitaGDP-whichisaffectinganimportantfactortothetotalnumberofstudentsinthegraduatestudents(graduateschoolisnotasmallcost,andonlyhaveacertaineconomicbasehavemoreopportunitiesforpost-graduate)
Thetotalpopulation-itwillaffectthetotalnumberofstudentsingraduatestudentsisanimportantfactor(itcanbesaidtoaffectitisbasedonsource)
Thenumberofunemployedpersons-thisistheimpactofadirectfactorofthetotalnumberofstudentsinthegraduatestudents(itispreciselybecauseofthehighunemploymentrate,willmorepeoplechooseKaoyanwillbetheirownemploymentweights)
Numberofcollegesanduniversities-whichistoinfluencepreciselybecauseoftheemergenceofmoreinstitutionsofhigherlearningintheschoolthetotalnumberofgraduatestudentsisnotasmallfactor(toallowmorepeopletoparticipateinKaoyan)
二EstablishModel
Y=α+β1X1+β2X2+β3X3+β4X4+u
Amongthem,the
Y-inthetotalnumberofgraduatestudents(variable)
X1-percapitaGDP(explanatoryvariables)
X2-thetotalpopulation(explanatoryvariables)
X3-thenumberofunemployedpersons(explanatoryvariables)
X4-thenumberofcollegesanduniversities(explanatoryvariables)
三、Datacollection
1.dateExplain
Here,usingthesamearea(ie,China)time-seriesdatawerefitted
2.Datacollection
Timeseriesdatafrom1986to2005,thespecificcircumstancesareshowninTable1
Table1:
Y
X1
X2
X3
X4
1986
11
07
264.4
1054
1987
12
300
276.6
1063
1988
112776
96.2
1075
1989
1
704
377.9
1075
199
14333
383.2
1075
199
15823
352.2
1075
1992
94164
2311
117171
363.9
1053
1993
1
8517
420.1
1065
1994
127935
4
6.4
1080
1995
21121
519.6
1054
1996
163322
5846
122389
552.8
1032
1997
176353
6420
123626
576.8
1020
1998
198885
6796
124761
571
1022
1999
2335
6
575
1071
2
58
126743
595
1041
2
225
2
98
128453
770
1396
2
542
129227
800
1552
2
336
129988
827
1731
2
04
92
四、Modelparameterestimation,inspectionandcorrection
1.Modelparameterestimationanditseconomicsignificance,statisticalinferencetest
twoway(scatterYX2)
twoway(scatterYX3)
twoway(scatterYX4)
graphtwowaylfityX1
graphtwowaylfityX2
graphtwowaylfityX3
graphtwowaylfityX4
Y=59.22454816*X1-7.158602346*X2-366.8774279*X3+621.3347694*X4
(6.352288)(3.257541)(157.9402)(46.72256)
t=(9.323341)(-2.197548)(-2.322889)(13.29839)
+270775.151
(369252.8)
(0.733306)
R2=0.996048AdjustedR-squared=0.994994F=945.1415DW=1.596173
Visible,X1,X2,X3,X4tvaluesaresignificant,indicatingthatthepercapitaGDP,thetotalpopulationofregisteredurbanunemployedpopulation,thenumberofcollegesanduniversitiesarethemainfactorsaffectingthetotalnumberofgraduatestudentsinschool.Modelcoefficientofdeterminationfor0.996048amendmentscoefficientofdeterminationof0.994994,wasrelativelylarge,indicatinghighdegreeofmodelfit,whiletheFvalueof945.1415,indicatingthatthemodeloverallissignificant。
Inaddition,thecoefficientofX1,X4,inlinewitheconomicsignificance,butthecoefficientofX2,X3,doesnotmeettheeconomicsignificance,becausefromaneconomicsense,withtheincreaseinthetotalpopulation(X2),thetotalnumberofgraduatestudentsshouldbeincreased,andduetotheincreaseinthenumberofunemployed,therewillbemoreandmorepeoplechoosegraduateschool,sothatthetotalnumberofunemployedandgraduatestudentsshouldbepositivelycorrelated.X2,X3coefficientsigncontrarytoexpectations,whichmayindicatetheexistenceofseveremulticollinearity.
2.计量经济学检验
TheabovetablecanbeseentoexplainthepositivecorrelationbetweentheheightofthevariableX1andX2,X3,X4,X2,X1,X3,betweenthehighlypositivelycorrelated,showingthatthereisseriousmulticollinearity.Followingamendmentstepwiseregression:
Y=60.21976901*X1-61096.25048
(6.311944)(42959.23)
t=(9.540606)(-1.422191)
AdjustedR-squared=0.825725F=91.02316
Y=27.05878289*X2-2993786.354
(5.622791)(680596.9)
t=(4.812340)(-4.398766)
R-squared=0.562668F=23.15862
Y=1231.659997*X3-371863.6509
(161.9045)(90051.37)
t=(7.607324)(-4.129461)
AdjustedR-squared=0.749576F=57.87138
Y=1053.519847*X4-964699.7964
(65.85948)(79072.71)
t=(15.99648)(-12.20016)
AdjustedR-squared=0.930628F=255.8874
Theanalysisshowsthatthefoursimpleregressionmodel,thetotalnumberofgraduatestudentsforthelinearrelationshipbetweenYcollegex4,goodnessoffit:
Y=1053.519847*X4-964699.7964
(65.85948)(79072.71)
t=(15.99648)(-12.20016)
AdjustedR-squared=0.930628F=255.887
Y=714.1694264*X4+25.58237739*X1-708247.7381
(48.45708)(2.930053)(45496.23)
t=(14.73818)(8.731029)(-15.56718)
AdjustedR-squared=0.986606F=700.7988
Y=886.3583756*X4+8.974091045*X2-1852246.686
(55.52670)(1.837722)(189180.7)
t=(15.96274)(4.883269)(-9.790886)
AdjustedR-squared=0.969430F=302.2581
Y=791.519267*X4+436.7502136*X3-885870.134
(69.64253)(90.10899)(55171.66)
t=(11.36546)(4.846910)(-16.05662)
AdjustedR-squared=0.969163F=299.5666
Bythedataanalysis,comparison,percapitaGDPofthenewentrantstotheX1equationoftheAdjustedR-squared=.986606
Thelargestimprovement,andeachparameter,T-testsignificant,soIchosetoretaintheX1
Thenaddtheothernewvariablestothestepwiseregression:
Y=570.3757921*X4+53.53863254*X1-12.18901747*X2+777507.8381
(46.57535)(6.618152)(2.747500)(336370.1)
t=(12.24630)(8.089665)(-4.436403)(2.311466)
AdjustedR-squared=0.994626F=987.1753
Throughanalysis,wecanfind:
addanewvariableX2,X2coefficient-12.18901747,indicatinganegativecorrelationbetweenX2andY,butintherealeconomicsignificance,X2totalpopulation,andYnumberofgraduatestudentsapositivecorrelationbetweenthemoregeneraleconomicsignificanceofthetotalpopulation,theabsoluteamountofthenumberofgraduatestudentwillbemore.So,X2,shouldberemoved.
Y=700.5113451*X4+53.63805156*X1-597.614061*X3-534866.1749
(33.11564)(6.480707)(131.3478)(49101.16)
t=(12.24630)(8.089665)(-4.436403)(2.311466)
AdjustedR-squared=0.994626F=987.1753
Similarly,addinganewvariableX3,itsparameterestimateisstillnegative,X3,representedbythenumberofunemploymentinurbanareas,theeconomicsignificance,themoreunemploymentinurbanareas,willencouragemoreandmorepeoplegotoPubMedinordertoachieveimprovetheirownquality,employabilityandopportunities.So,inreality,thetwoshouldbepositivelycorrelated,itshouldberemovedX3
3.Whitetest
Finalresultsofaseriesofinspectionandcorrection:
Y=-51055.44688+66.53070046*X1+382.1680346*X4
(9052.520) (9.443438) (78.77833)
t=(-5.639916)(7.045178)(4.851182)
AdjustedR-squared=0.921287F=106.3395 DW=1.627477
五、Analysisandconclusionsofthemodel
Itcanbeseenfromthemodel:
(1)model:
significantlycorrelatedonlywithcollegesanduniversitiestotalandpercapitaGDPinthetotalnumberofgraduatestudents.
(2)X1,X4isinlinewitheconomicsignificanceofthetest.Economicsense,thetotalnumberofgraduatestudentswiththeincreaseinpercapitaGDPincreases,theincreasewiththeincreaseinthetotalnumberofuniversities.Anduniversitiesisthetotalimpactofthetotalnumberofthemostimportantfactorinthegraduatestudents.
(3)theamendmentofthemodelcoefficientofdeterminationandFvaluesareveryhighgoodnessoffitofthemodelisgood
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