宏观经济管理学与财务知识分析(ppt 58页).pptx
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宏观经济管理学与财务知识分析(ppt 58页).pptx
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CHAPTER15InternationalEconomicPolicy1Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.QuestionsHowhastheworldorganizeditsinternationalmonetarysystem?
Whatisafixedexchangeratesystem?
Whatisafloatingexchangeratesystem?
Whatarethecostsandbenefitsoffixedexchangeratesvis-visfloatingexchangerates?
2Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.QuestionsWhydomostcountriestodayhavefloatingexchangerates?
WhyhaswesternEuroperecentlycreateda“monetaryunion”-anirrevocablecommitmenttofixedexchangerateswithinwesternEurope?
Whatwerethecausesofthethreemajorcurrencycrisesofthe1990s?
3Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.TheGoldStandardBeforeWorldWarI,nearlyalloftheworldeconomywasonthegoldstandardagovernmentwoulddefineaunitofitscurrencyasworthaparticularamountofgoldthecurrencywasconvertiblecouldbeconvertedintogoldfreelythecurrencyspriceintermsofgoldwasitsparity4Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Figure15.2-GrowthoftheGoldStandard5Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.TheGoldStandardWhentwocountrieswereonthegoldstandard,theirnominalexchangeratewasfixedattheratiooftheirgoldparitiesatWorldWarIIparitiestheU.S.dollarwasequalto1/35ofanounceofgoldtheBritishpoundsterlingwassettoequal1/15.58333ouncesofgoldtheexchangerateofthedollarforthepoundwas1.00=$2.406Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.TheGoldStandardExampleofcurrencyarbitragetheU.S.governmentiswillingtobuygoldat$35perouncetheBritishgovernmentiswillingtobuygoldat15.58333perouncethepoundtradesfor$2.64(10%higherthantheratioofthegoldparities-$2.40)7Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.TheGoldStandardSomeonewithanounceofgoldcouldtradeittotheBritishTreasuryfor15.58333tradethosepoundsfordollarsintheforeignexchangemarketandget$38.50tradethe$38.50totheU.S.Treasuryfor1.1ouncesofgoldrepeattheprocessasquicklyaspossible,makinga10%profiteachtimethecircleiscompleted8Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Figure15.1-HowtoProfitintheForeign-ExchangeMarket9Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.WeaknessesoftheGoldStandardThegoldstandardtendedtobedeflationaryundersomecircumstances,itpushedcountriestoraisetheirinterestrateswhichreducedoutputandincreasedunemploymentitneverprovidedacountervailingpushtoothercountriestolowertheirinterestrates10Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.WeaknessesoftheGoldStandardIftheexchangerateisfloating,foreignersdomesticcurrencyearningsmustbeusedtobuyexportsortoinvestinthehomecountryTheexchangeratemovesupordowninresponsetothesupplyanddemandforforeignexchangeinordertomakeitso11Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.0NFINXWeaknessesoftheGoldStandardUnderagoldstandard,foreign-currencyearningscanalsobeusedtopurchasegoldfromtheforeigncountrysTreasuryIfacountrysnetexportsplusnetforeigninvestmentarelessthanzero,itsTreasurywillfinditselflosinggoldthecountrysgoldreservesshrink12Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.0FG-NFINXWeaknessesoftheGoldStandardIfacountrysgoldreservesareshrinking,ithasachoiceabandonthefixedexchangeratesystemmakeitmoreattractiveforforeignerstoinvestbyraisingdomesticinterestratesputscontractionarypressureontheeconomyCountriesgaininggoldfacenoincentivetolowerinterestratesinordertostayonthegoldstandard13Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.CollapseoftheGoldStandardThegoldstandardwassuspendedduringWorldWarIAfterthewarended,politiciansandcentralbankerssoughttorestoreittheybelieveditwasanimportantstepinrestoringprosperityAftertheGreatDepressionbegan,thegoldstandardbrokeapart14Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.CollapseoftheGoldStandardFourfactorsmadethegoldstandardalesssecuremonetarysystemeveryoneknewthatgovernmentscouldabandontheirgoldparitiesinanemergencyeveryoneknewthatgovernmentsweretryingtokeepinterestrateslowenoughtoproducefullemployment15Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.CollapseoftheGoldStandardFourfactorsmadethegoldstandardalesssecuremonetarysystemafterWorldWarI,countriesheldtheirreservesinforeigncurrenciesratherthangoldthepost-warsurpluseconomiesdidnotlowerinterestratesasgoldflowedin16Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.CollapseoftheGoldStandardAssoonasarecessionhit,governmentsfoundthemselvesunderpressuretoraiseinterestratesandloweroutputcouldeitherstayonthegoldstandardandfaceadeepdepressionorabandonthegoldstandardthefurthercountriesmovedawayfromtheirgold-standardrates,thefastertheyrecoveredfromtheGreatDepression17Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Figure15.3-EconomicPerformanceandDegreeofExchangeRateDepreciationDuringtheGreatDepression18Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.TheBrettonWoodsSystemTheBrettonWoodsSystemwastheresultofaninternationalmonetaryconferencethattookplacein1944Threeprinciplesguidedthissysteminordinarytimes,exchangeratesshouldbefixedinextraordinarytimes,exchangeratesshouldbechangedaninstitutionwasneededtowatchovertheinternationalfinancialsystemtheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)19Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.TheBrettonWoodsSystemTheBrettonWoodsSystembrokedownintheearly1970stheU.S.founditselfwithalargetradedeficitandsoughttodevalueitscurrencySincethen,theexchangeratesofthemajorindustrialpowershavebeenfloatingexchangeratesfluctuateaccordingtosupplyanddemand20Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.HowaFixedExchangeRateSystemWorksAfixedexchangerateisacommitmentbyacountrytobuyandsellitscurrencyatfixed,unchangingprices(intermsofothercurrencies)thecentralbankorTreasurymustmaintainforeignexchangereservesthesereservesarelimited21Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.HowaFixedExchangeRateSystemWorksIfthereisahighdegreeofcapitalmobility,therealexchangerateissetbyThehighertheinterestratedifferentialinfavorofthehomecountry,theloweristheexchangerate22Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.)r-(r-fr0Figure15.4-TheRealExchangeRate,Long-RunExpectations,andInterestRateDifferentials23Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.HowaFixedExchangeRateSystemWorksIfcapitalishighlymobileandthefixedexchangerate(*)islowerthanforeignexchangespeculatorswillwanttosellthehomecurrencyforforeigncurrencythegovernmentspendsdownitsreservestokeeptheexchangerateat*,thecentralbankmustlowerinterestratesmonetarypolicynolongercanplayaroleindomesticstabilization24Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Figure15.5-DomesticInterestRatesAreSetbyForeign-ExchangeSpeculatorsandtheExchangeRateTarget25Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.HowaFixedExchangeRateSystemWorksThecentralbankmustsetthedomesticrealinterestrateequaltoanincreaseinforeigninterestrates(rf)requiresapoint-for-pointincreaseindomesticinterestratesanincreaseinforeignexchangespeculatorsviewsofthelong-runvalueoftheexchangerate(0)requiresanincreaseindomesticinterestrates26Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.r0f*-rrFigure15.6-EffectofForeignShocksunderFixedExchangeRates27Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.HowaFixedExchangeRateSystemWorksIfcapitalmobilityislowtheexchangerateisalsoaffectedbythespeedatwhichthegovernmentisaccumulatingorspendingitsforeignexchangereserves(R)whenthegovernmentisaccumulatingreserves,thevalueofforeigncurrencyishigherthanitwouldotherwisebeitisincreasingforeigncurrencydemand28Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.R)r-(r-Rfr0Figure15.7-WithLimitedCapitalMobilityaCentralBankCanShifttheExchangeRatebySpendingReserves29Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.HowaFixedExchangeRateSystemWorksIfcapitalmobilityislowthecentralbankcanusemonetarypolicyfordomesticdisturbancesthisislimitedbythesensitivityofexchangeratestothemagnitudeofforeign-exchangemarketinterventionsperformedbythecentralbankandbytheamountofreservesthedomesticrealinterestratewillbe30Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.R*-rrrRr0fBenefitsofFixedExchangeRatesFloatingexchangeratesystemsaddriskdiscouragesinternationaltrademakestheinternationaldivisionoflaborlesssophisticatedThisisanimportantreasonbehindthedecisionofmostofwesternEuropetoformamonetaryunionfixtheirexchangeratesagainsteachotherirrevocably31Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.CostsofFixedExchangeRatesUnderfixedexchangerates,monetarypolicyistightlyconstrainedbytherequirementofmaintainingtheexchangerateatitsfixedparityFixedexchangeratesalsohavethedisadvantageofrapidlytransmittingmonetary
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