麦肯锡对伊拉克战争后的机会分析报告.ppt
- 文档编号:18698294
- 上传时间:2023-09-23
- 格式:PPT
- 页数:32
- 大小:1.23MB
麦肯锡对伊拉克战争后的机会分析报告.ppt
《麦肯锡对伊拉克战争后的机会分析报告.ppt》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《麦肯锡对伊拉克战争后的机会分析报告.ppt(32页珍藏版)》请在冰点文库上搜索。
OVERVIEWOFTHEIRAQOPPORTUNITY,DoingBusinessinIraq,Amman,5thJune2003,AchmedAl-ShahrabaniMcKinsey&Company,Inc.,AGENDA,OverviewIraqEconomicscenariosforIraqRequiredinvestments,AGENDA,OverviewIraqEconomicscenariosforIraqRequiredinvestments,Totalarea:
437,000m2LimitedarablelandArableland:
11%Permanentcrops:
1%Desert:
88%LargestgovernatesBaghdad(8.0m)Nineveh(2.1m)Basra(2.0m)Varyingclimate(Baghdad)Summertemp:
35-50Wintertemp:
5-15Rainfall:
155mm/year,Source:
CountryWatch,CIAworldfactbook,Cartransport39,000kmpavedroads765,000privatelyregisteredpassengercars266,000privatelyregisteredtrucksAirMajorairportsinBaghdad,BasraandMosulThreemajorrailwayroutesBaghdadKirkukIrbilBaghdadMosulYurubiyahBaghdadMaagalUmmQasrTelecom3%penetration,nomobilenetworkUtilities250watertreatmentfacilitiesPowergenerationcapacityof9500(pre1990),currentlyat1800MW,Geographyandclimate,Infrastructure,ThemajorityofIraqischaracterizedbydesert,OVERVIEWIRAQIGEOGRAPHY,Source:
Worldoutlook,EIUcountryriskreportIraq,50%ofpopulationyoungerthan16years28%ofpopulationislaborforceApproximately51%males75%ofpopulationresidesinurbanareasThereisanestimated1m2mIraqislivinginexileFertilityrate4.55childrenperwomenAdultliteracyat54%1.5-2.5millionforeignworkers,Keyfacts,1980,1985,1990,1995,2000,2002,CAGR3%,DEVELOPMENTIRAQIPOPULATION1980TO2002,Iraqipopulationamountstomorethan24millions,Million,Source:
CIAworldfactbook,100%=24.2m,Others,Arabs-ShiaMuslims,KurdsSunniMuslims,4,62,12,ArabsSunniMuslims,22,ESTIMATE,POPULATIONSIZEBYETHNICGROUP,ShiaMuslimsformIraqsethnicmajority,%,Adultliteracyat54%(vs.75%inIran),*From6to23yearsSource:
EIUcountryprofileIraq2002,1980,1998,EDUCATIONENROLMENTRATIOFORALLAGES*-1980VS.1998,Anincreasingnumberofchildrendoesnotreceiveformaleducation,ESTIMATE,Source:
CountryWatch,Provenreserves,Unprovenpotential,Total,GasTrillionm3,2001,OilBillionbarrels,2001,OVERVIEWOFIRAQSNATURALOILANDGASRESERVES,Iraqhasoneofthelargestnaturaloilandgasreserves,ESTIMATE,Source:
BPStatisticalreview,2002,1.SaudiArabia,2.Iraq,3.UAE,4.Kuwait,5.Iran,Oil,provedreservesBillionbarrels,2001,Gas,provedreservesTrillionm3,2001,1.Russia,2.Iran,3.Qatar,4.SaudiArabia,5.UAE,10.Iraq,RANKINGOFBIGGESTNATURALOILANDGASRESERVESWORDWIDE,whicharethesecondlargestinoilandthetenthlargestingas,ESTIMATE,*Purchasingpowerparitymethod,currentpricesSource:
CIAWorldfactbook;CountryWatch;EIUcountryriskreportonIraq2003,2002,50-60,25-35,1980,DEVELOPMENTOFIRAQSREALGDP*-1980TO2002,Overthepastdecade,IraqsrealGDPfellby50%,USDbillion,ESTIMATE,-50%,GDPestimatesfor2002subjecttowidevariation(USD24-60billion),*Purchasingpowerparitymethod,currentpricesSource:
CIAWorldFactbook;CountryWatch,2002,3.8-4.5,1.0-1.4,1980,ESTIMATE,DEVELOPMENTOFIRAQSREALGDP*PERCAPITA-1980TO2002,andpurchasingpowerparityonindividuallevelevenfurther,USDthousands,GDP/capitaestimatessubjecttowidevariation(USD1.000-2.500),-70%,Source:
GlobalInsightWMM2.Q.2003,Iraq,SaudiArabia,COMPARISONOFGDPDEVELOPMENTIRAQVS.SAUDIARABIA-1970TO2000,IraqhassufferedasignificantreductioninGDPoverlast25years,inbillionUSDinpricesandexchangeratesof2000,Source:
GlobalInsightWMM2.Q.2003,Iraq,SaudiArabia,COMPARISONOFGDPPERCAPITADEVELOPMENTIRAQVS.SAUDIARABIA-1970TO2000,Inthelate70tiesIraqsGDPpercapitawasatparwithSaudiArabia,in000USDinpricesandexchangeratesof2000,*BasedonaGDPofUSD30billionandapopulationof24millionSource:
EIUcountryprofileIraq,Jordan,Iran,Iraq,SaudiArabia,Syria,*,ESTIMATE,COMPARISONOFGDPPERCAPITA-2002,IraqscurrentGDPpercapitaiscomparabletoSyriaandIran,USDthousands,Source:
Economistintelligenceunit2002;OANDA.COM,Iraqiinflationrates%,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,ExchangeratesIraqiDinarperUSD(blackmarketrate),Hugebudgetdeficitsleadto“printingofmoney”,BUT:
OfficialexchangeratehasbeenID0,31totheUSDsince1983,2001,2002,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,CurrentexchangerateID900-1.000=1USD,ESTIMATE,DEVELOPMENTOFINFLATIONANDEXCHANGERATES1996TO2002,Iraqhasshownhighinflationcoupledwithstrongdepreciationofthecurrency,Source:
EIUcountrydata,Externaldebt$bn,Iraq,Syria,Jordan,Iran,230-485,10,91,113,%ofGPD,60-130,MaincausesofuncertaintyareAccruedinterest“Assistance”fundsinIran-IraqwarClaimsfollowingGulfwar1991,ESTIMATE,COMPARISONOFEXTERNALLIABILITIES-2001,Iraqhassignificantliabilitiesandcanbeconsideredbankrupt,*Estimatesrangefrom$103.4$129.4bnSource:
Reuters;InstituteforinternationalEconomics,25,18,13,10,SaudiArabia,GulfStatesexcl.Kuwait,Kuwait,ParisClubexclRussia,France,8,Russia,8,France,2,USA,3,CommercialBankCreditors,2,Bulgaria,2,Poland,Czech,Romania,1,MultilateralInstitutions,1,Yugoslavia,2,TradeClaims,24,Others,Totalexternaldebt,119*,14-25,Kuwaitreparationpayments,133144,Totalclaims,IraqregardedtheloansfromSaudiArabiaandKuwaitasgrantpaymentsforits1980waragainstIran,Comments,Creditor,Amountprincipalandoverdueinterest,ESTIMATE,BREAKDOWNOFIRAQILIABILITIES2001,IraqsliabilitiesaremainlyloansfromtheGulfstatesgrantedtoIraqinthe80tiesduringthewarwithIran,(USDbn),TheIMFandWorldBankareowedlessthan$200m,Source:
EIUCountryprofileIraq2002,France,Australia,China,Jordan,Top5importsources,Top5exportdestinations,U.S.,France,Jordan,Italy,Spain,Italy,Mainlyoilexportswithinthefoodforoilprogram,MAJORIRAQITRADINGPARTNERS-2001,Franceismostimportantsupplier,theUSmostimportantcustomerofIraqiproducts,USDmillion,AGENDA,OverviewIraqEconomicscenariosforIraqRecentdevelopments,Source:
McKinsey,ESTIMATEFORDISCUSSION,THREEDEVELOPMENTSCENARIOS,IraqsIntheWorldClassscenarioIraqiGDPpercapitacouldreach4,000USDby2013,Non-oilSectors,+,*)Populationin2003=24million,2008=29million,2013=33millionSource:
McKinsey,GDPdevelopment2003-2013(inbnUSD),GDPpercapita*2003-2013(in000USD),ESTIMATEFORDISCUSSION,THREEPOTENTIALDEVELOPMENTSCENARIOS,InthedistinctivescenarioIraqiGDPpercapitacouldreach4,000USDby2013,COMPARISONOFIRAQWITHSAUDIARABIA,Source:
GlobalInsightWMM2.Q.2003,GDPpercapitacomparison000USD,GDPcomparisonbnUSD,65,145,20,155,30,225,5,16,1,10,1,10,Iraq,Saudi,Iraq,Saudi,Iraq,Saudi,Iraq,Saudi,Iraq,Saudi,Iraq,Saudi,1980,1990,2003,1980,1990,2003,ESTIMATEFORDISCUSSION,AGENDA,OverviewIraqEconomicscenariosforIraqRequiredinvestments,*Assumingacapitalproductivityof0.2Source:
McKinseyanalysis,GDP2003(bnUSD),30,ESTIMATEOFREQUIREDINVESTMENTSINTOIRAQOVERTHENEXTDECADE,ToachievetheWorldClassscenarioIraqseconomyrequiresUSD250-350billionininvestments,mostofwhichwillhavetobeFDI,overthenextdecade,ESTIMATEFORDISCUSSION,Assuminganaveragecapitalproductivityof0.2,Source:
GlobalInsight;McKinseyanalysis,Oilandgas,Construction,Community,socialandpersonalservices,Agriculture,Retail/Wholesale,Communicationincl.telecom,Manufacturing,Transportation,Financialservicesincl.Realestate,Other(incl.Utilities),Sectorsize-2008,ShareofGDPin%in2008,60,10,7,5,5,4,3,3,2,1,34-42,6,4,3,3,2-3,2,1-2,1,1,100,ESTIMATEDPOTENTIALSECTORSIZE,By2008,IraqseconomyislikelytocontinuetobedominatedbytheOil/gassector,ESTIMATE,bnUSD,57-67,Total,Scenario2:
GDPgrowthrateat11-13%,GDPasanindicatorofthecapabilityofaneconomytoaddvalue,Source:
GlobalInsight,McKinseyanalysis,By2010IraqcangenerateannualoilrevenuesofaboutUSD44billion(assuming80%exportandapriceofUSD20perbarrel),Source:
PFCEconomy,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,Raisingproductionto6mb/drequiresUSD30-35billionofinvestments,RehabilitatingofexistinginfrastructurewillrequireUSD3-6billionofinvestments,ESTIMATE,ESTIMATEDIRAQIOILPRODUCTION,IncreasingIraqsoilcapacitywillrequiresignificantinvestments,mbarrelperday,Source:
McKinsey,EstimatesforrebuildingIraqvaryfromabout$20billionayearforseveralyearstoasmuchas$600billionoveradecadebecausethescaleofreconstructionisdifficulttoestimate,ESTIMATE,RebuildingIraqsbasichardinfrastructurewillbechallengingandwillrequiresubstantialinvestmentsoverthenextdecade,ESTIMATEDINVESTMENTRQUIREMENTS,Source:
McKinsey,UnitedStatesDepartmentofDefense,USAIDWebsite,USAIDCONTRACTS/GRANTS,AwardedcontractsandgrantsPersonnelSupport(AwardedtoInternationalResourcesGroup,7/2/03)SeaportAdministration(AwardedtoStevedoringServicesofAmerica,24/3/03)PrimaryandSecondaryEducation(AwardedtoCreativeAssociates,11/4/03)LocalGovernance(AwardedtoResearchTriangleInstitute,11/4/03)CapitalConstruction(AwardedtoBechtel,17/4/03)TheaterLogisticalSupport(Inter-agencyagreementawardedtotheAirForceContractAugmentationProgram(AFCAP)on17/2/03)AirportAdministration(awardedtoSkyLinkAirandLogisticssupporton5/5/2003)PublicHealth(AwardedtoAbtAssociates,30/4/03)BacktoSchoolCampaign(AwardedtoUNICEF,8/4/03)HealthWaterandSanitationServices(AwardedtoUNICEFon28/3/03)HealthStrengtheningSystems(AwardedtoWHO,28/3/03)CommunityActionProgram(Awardedtonumberofrelieforganizationsincl.MercyCorps,IRD,SavetheChildrenFederation,27/05/2003),NOTCOMPREHENSIVE,UptoUSD680million,UptoUSD168million,UptoUSD63million,UASAIDhasawardedannumberofcontractsandthereareaboutUSD6.7billioninfundsavailabletorebuildIraq,Availablefundsources:
USD1.7billionoffrozenIraqigovernmentassetsintheUS.USD700millionofIraqigovernmentcashseizedinIraq.USD1.9billioninpledgesfromtheinternationalcommunityandotherassistanceoffers.USD2.5billionappropriatedfromUSCongressforreconstruction.,Source:
McKinsey,Createanenablingandopenec
- 配套讲稿:
如PPT文件的首页显示word图标,表示该PPT已包含配套word讲稿。双击word图标可打开word文档。
- 特殊限制:
部分文档作品中含有的国旗、国徽等图片,仅作为作品整体效果示例展示,禁止商用。设计者仅对作品中独创性部分享有著作权。
- 关 键 词:
- 麦肯锡 伊拉克战争 机会 分析 报告