西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER08.pptx
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西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER08.pptx
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CHAPTER08,INFLATION,DISINFLATION,ANDDEFLATION,Slide1,WhatYouWillLearninthisChapter:
WhyeffortstocollectaninflationtaxbyprintingmoneycanleadtohighratesofinflationHowhighinflationcanspiralintohyperinflationasthepublictriestoavoidpayingtheinflationtaxTheeconomy-widecostsofinflationanddisinflation,andthedebateovertheoptimalrateofinflationWhyevenmoderatelevelsofinflationcanbehardtoendWhydeflationisaproblemforeconomicpolicy,2,MoneyandInflation,Between1985and1995Brazildemonstratedwhatreallyseriousinflationuptoalmost3,000%peryearlookslike.,3,MoneyandPrices,Accordingtotheclassicalmodelofthepricelevel,therealquantityofmoneyisalwaysatitslong-runequilibriumlevel.,4,MoneySupplyGrowthandInflationinBrazil,5,TheInflationTax,Theinflationtaxisthereductionintherealvalueofmoneyheldbythepubliccausedbyinflation,equaltotheinflationratetimesthemoneysupply,onthosewhoholdmoneyTherealvalueofresourcescapturedbythegovernmentisreflectedbytherealinflationtax,theinflationratetimestherealmoneysupply,6,TheLogicofHyperinflation,Toavoidpayingtheinflationtax,peoplereducetheirrealmoneyholdingsandforcethegovernmenttoincreaseinflationtocapturethesameamountofrealinflationtaxInsomecases,thisleadstoaviciouscircleofashrinkingrealmoneysupplyandarisingrateofinflation,leadingtohyperinflationandafiscalcrisisIn1923,Germanysmoneywasworthsolittlethatchildrenusedstacksofbanknotesasbuildingblocks,7,MoneyandPricesinBrazil,1985-1995,8,EffectsofInflationWinnersandLosersfromUnexpectedInflation,ThenominalinterestrateisequaltotherealinterestrateplustheinflationrateTheexpectedinflationrateisaccountedforinthenominalinterestrateonaloanInflationthatishigherthanexpectedbenefitsborrowersandhurtslendersInflationthatislowerthanexpectedbenefitslendersandhurtsborrowers,9,EffectsofInflationExpectedInflationandInterestRates,AccordingtotheFishereffect,expectedinflationraisesthenominalinterestrateone-for-one,sotherealinterestrateremainsunchanged,10,TheFisherEffect,11,TheCostsofInflation,Shoe-leathercostsaretheincreasedcostsoftransactionsthatarisefromthepublicseffortstoavoidtheinflationtaxMenucostsarethecostsofchangingpricesUnit-of-accountcostsarecoststhatarisebecausemoneyceasestobeareliablemeasureofvalue,Althoughthereareargumentsforanegativerateofinflation(deflation),inpracticepolicy-makerstendtoaimforlowbutpositiveratesofinflation,12,InflationandNominalInterestRatesinCanada,13,ModerateInflationandDisinflation,Evencountriesthatdontneedtoprintmoneytocovergovernmentdeficitscanstillexperiencemoderateinflationrates:
EitherbecauseofpoliticalopportunismOrbecauseofwishfulthinking,14,ModerateInflationandDisinflation,Whenmoderateinflationhappens,gettingitbackdowncanbedifficultbecausedisinflationcanbeverycostly,requiringthesacrificeoflargeamountsofpotentialoutputandimposinghighlevelsofunemploymentThecostsofdisinflationcouldbereducedifpolicy-makersexplicitlystatetheirdeterminationtoreduceinflation,15,SupplyShocks,AnotherfactorthatcontributedtotheriseofCanadasinflationinthe1970sanditsdeclineinthe1980swasaseriesofsupplyshocks,firstnegativeandthenpositive,16,TheGreatDisinflationofthe1980s,17,EffectsofDeflation,Unexpecteddeflation,likeunexpectedinflation,producesbothwinnersandlosersbutintheoppositedirectionLenders,whoareowedmoney,gainbecausetherealvalueofborrowerspaymentsincreasesBorrowerslosebecausetherealburdenoftheirdebtrisesTheoveralleffectofunexpecteddeflationistoreduceaggregatedemand,whichcanintensifyaneconomicdownturnThereductioninaggregatedemandcausedbydeflationiscalleddebtdeflation,EffectsofUnexpectedDeflation,18,EffectsofDeflation,Thereisazeroboundonthenominalinterestrate:
ItcannotgobelowzeroAsituationinwhichmonetarypolicycantbeusedbecausenominalinterestratescannotfallbelowthezeroboundisknownasaliquiditytrapAliquiditytrapcanoccurwheneverthereisasharpreductionindemandforloanablefunds,EffectsofExpectedDeflation,19,JapansTrap,20,
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