罗兰贝格给荷兰石油做的SWOT分析.ppt
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罗兰贝格给荷兰石油做的SWOT分析.ppt
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SectorSketchandSWOTAnalysisoftheDutchOilSectorFinalPresentationDutchMinistryofEconomicAffairsOilDivision,TheHague,3rdFebruary1999,AconflictappearstobeemergingbetweenthetraditionalDutcheconomicstrengthsandmorerecentenvironmentalconcerns,Dutcheconomicprosperity,Oilindustryfocussedonexports,Foundedontrading,MotorofRotterdamtradingstrength,Dutchenvironment,Legitimateenvironmentalconcerns,Highpopulationdensitylow-lying-vulnerabletoGlobalwarming,GlobalwarmingCongestionNoise,Exportindustrymustbeinternationallycompetitivetosurvive,Toughenvironmentalstance,Conflict,Contents,Page,A.ExtractsfromSectorSketchB.FeedbackfromoilandchemicalcompanyinterviewsC.SWOTAnalysisC.1.StrengthsC.2.WeaknessesC.3.OpportunitiesC.4.ThreatsD.Recommendations,47111217232631,A.ExtractsfromSectorSketch,TheDutchoilindustryhastraditionallybeenstrongandinternationallyorientated,Only15%oftotaloilsupplydestinedforhomemarketAccountsfor9%ofEUrefiningcapacityKeysynergieswithandsupplytoDutchchemicalsindustryBeneluxchemicalclusterissecondlargestinEurope,Rotterdamworldsleadingportfor30yearsRoad,rail,inlandwaterwayandpipelineconnectionstomanymajormarkets,MajoroiltradingmarketintheEUtimezoneandoneofthebig3globally(Rotterdam,Houston,Singapore),Eachsectorintheoilindustryfacesimportantissuesaffectingitscompetitiveposition,Oilrefining,IncreasingcostsofenvironmentalcomplianceMergers/allianceschangethecompetitivesceneOvercapacityandlowreturns,Storage,SupportstheinternationalbusinessFostersindependenttradersOvercapacityandlowreturns,Trading,StrongroleofrefiningcompaniesDependentoncriticalmassofRotterdammarket,Bunkering,ImportantfueloiloutletforrefinersRefinersbecomingdominant,Pipelines,PipelinesandwaterwayskeytoRotterdamlogisticaladvantageDominatedbyprivateorconsortiumownedpipelines,Chemicals,ImportantsynergieswithoilsectorSectorenteringdownturnLong-termgrowthpotential,B.Feedbackfromoilandchemicalcompanyinterviews,Environmentalandclean-upregulationswerecentraltoviewsexpressedbymostinterviewees,RoleoftheNetherlands,Decisionmakingbodies,Landrelease,Currentsituation,Industryviewpoint,Alternativeapproach,Goesaheadofcompetingcountriesonenvironmentalissues,Thisunderminescompetitivepositionofoilandchemicalindustries,LeadbyinfluencingEUconsensusratherthanbyexample,SignificantregionalandnationalvariationonenvironmentalregulationsCompetitiontobegreener,Variationpreventstheexistenceofalevelplayingfield,Placeenvironmentaldecisionmakingandimplementationinthehandsofonebody,Clean-upcostsareaformidableexitbarrier,Landcanbereleasedifeconomicallyviable,Costsofclean-upshouldbebalancedagainstcostoflandreclamation,However,thegovernmentswillingnesstodiscussandreachconsensuswasappreciated,AllintervieweesrecognisedtheWorldClassinfrastructureofRotterdam,althoughtherearethreemajorcontentiousissues,Portfees,Commoncarrierpipeline,Maasvlakte2,Currentsituation,Industryviewpoint,Alternativeapproach,Harbourduesbasedontonnageratherthanservicesused,RotterdamismoreexpensivethanAntwerp,LeHavreorHamburg.Theoilindustrysubsidisesthecontainerindustry,Basechargesmoreonservicesthanontonnagebasis,Nocommon-carrierpipelineexists,Maybeeconomicallyviable,Considercommoncarrierwhereextraflexibilityneeded,butcompensateownersofpipelinesforinvestmentandrisk,Positivediscussionlikely:
newlandreclamationathighcost,ExtralandwillfavourchemicalsectorTheoilindustrydoesnotrequireextraland,EnsureproperfundingforMaasvlakte2:
Noburdenonoilindustry,Pressureforrationalisationislikelytocoincidewithtimingofinvestmenttomeetfuturefuelspecifications,Overcapacity,Futurefuelspecifications,Currentsituation,Industryviewpoint,Despiterecentclosures,thereremainsupto15%overcapacity,Asmanyas13EUrefineriesneedtocloseIssuecomplicatedfurtherbyrecentmergersClean-upcostsremainthebiggestbarriertoexit;socialcostsarealsosignificant,Targetspecificationsfor2005require40bninvestmentacrosstheEU,OftheDutchrefineries,onlyEssoandShellarewellplacedtomeet2005specswithoutmajorinvestment,C.SWOTAnalysis,C.1.Strengths,TheDutchoilsectorislargeandwellconcentrated,accountingfor9%ofEUrefiningcapacity(comparedto4.5%consumption),Europoort,Pernis,CrudeCapacity(b/d),Nerefco,Shell,Esso,Total,KPI,S&H,374,000,400,000,180,000,148,000,70,000,10,000,Botlek,Vlissingen,+,x,Amsterdam,Europoort,79,500,Koch,Europoort,Source:
MinistryofEconomicAffairs,Allelementsoftheoilsectorarecloselyintegrated,Chemicalcluster,Refining,Internationaltradingport,Openandco-operativegovernment,StorageandBunkering,Services,utilitiesandcontractors,Thisintegrationissupportedbyworldclassinfrastructure,Harboursandterminals,Deepwaterharbours,particularlyRotterdamDirectaccessibilityfortheworldslargesttankersHighvolumecapacityandshortturn-aroundtimeExtensivebargehandling,Pipelines,SupplyBelgiumandGermanywithcrudeandproductsConnectionstomajorchemicalclustersinandbeyondtheNetherlandsMorethan1100kmnetworkwithinRotterdamlinkingproducersandstoragecompanies,RoadandRail,ConsiderableinfrastructurecurrentlyinplaceMajorinvestmentprogrammeinprogress,TheDutchports,particularlyRotterdam,benefitfromadvantageouslocations,ClosetoNorthSeaoilfieldsNaturalportforMEcrudesdestinedforNWEuropeanmarket,HollandoneofthemostdenselypopulatedEuropeancountriesPopulationof160millionwithin500kmradiusNavigableinlandwaterwaystomajormarkets,C.2.Weaknesses,OvercapacityhasledtolowprofitabilityintheDutchoilsectorandincreasingpressureforrationalisation,Refining,Storage,OvercapacityinHollandreflectsthetrendinEUasawholeExportrefinerieswithlowconversioncapacityarevulnerable(althoughspecialitynicheshelpprofitability),Longtermstructuralovercapacity,RecentmergersandalliancescreateanuncertainoutcomeforDutchoil,OftheNetherlandsrefineries,onlyShellandEssohavetheup-gradingflexibilitytomeetfuturedemandswithonlylimitedinvestment,Source:
IEA;DutchMinistryofEconomicAffairs,RB&Panalysis,FCCequivalentconversioncapacity(%distillationcapacity),DistillationcapacityMT/year,12%,25%,99%,3.8,20.0,7.4,9,18.7,37%,KPIEuropoort,Total/DOWVlissingen,EssoRotterdam,ShellPernis,Nerefco(BP/Texaco)Europoort,34%EURefineriesaverage,66%,38%Germany,40%UnitedKingdom,24%France,23%Belgium,AverageConversionCapacities,54%TheNetherlands,Inaddition,theNetherlandsattemptstoleadratherthangowithEuropeanenvironmentallegislation,EUhassetnewproductspecificationsButNolevelplayingfieldforrefineryemissionsatEUlevelEnforcementofregulationsstricterinNetherlandsInconsistenciesbetweenNational,RegionalandMunicipalauthorities,DutchOilSector,Thecostofclean-upregulationsinRotterdamisdistortingtheincentivesfortheoilindustrytoreleaseunusedland,but,TheLose-LoseoutcomecanonlychangetoWin-Winbyalteringtheincentivesforlandrelease,Clean-upcostsinEUarebetweenNLG100m-NLG400mperrefinery(NLG60-120/m2)Evenwhereplantshaveclosed,oilindustryhasincentivetoretainlandandpayrentratherthanpayimmediateclean-upcostSimilareconomicsconstrainreleaseofsurpluslandfromstorageterminals,ProjectedshortageoflandforexpansionisdrivingMaasvlakte2projectCostoflandreclamationisexpensiveandwillbebornebytaxpayerinitially(NLG500/m2),GovernmentpolicyisseentofocussolelyonRotterdam,partlyasaconsequenceofMainPortPolicy,Vlissingen,Onlyonejettyterminal(upto120,000dwt)Isolatedfromnaturalgaspipelines,WhenchemicalcompaniesfoundRotterdamunfavourable,AntwerpwaschosenaboveotherDutchports,Amsterdam,Growthlimitedbywaterdepth/shipsizeLackofrefininglimitssynergiesbetweenoilandchemicals,C.3.Opportunities,Thereareopportunitiesfornewbusinessesorsubstantialextensionstoexistingactivities,Energy,Pipelines,Electricityco-generationLowlevelheatcollectionanddistributionCO2collectionforgreenhouses,CommoncarriertoreducetransportcostsandmeetenvironmentalaimsEthylenepipelineforchemicals,Highvalue-addedproduction,Storage,UpgradeproductsforrefineriesunabletomeetenvironmentalspecsHighqualityproductstrategyforexporttopremiummarketsPushforhighershareofchemicalsgrowth,UseexcessstoragetoholdstrategicstocksforwholeEU,Overcapacityisalong-termproblemthatneedstobeaddressedbyindustrybutmaybehelpedbyGovernmentassistance,FocusesinvestmentonareasofstrengthThereispotentialforindividualplantclosuresRecentmergers/clusterapproachmayleadtonewcombinations,Opportunity,Action,Aim,Strongestunitsoperatenearfuelcapacity,Landwouldbemadeavailableforportexpansion,GovernmentIntroduceincentivesforclean-upofformerorsurplussites,Bestuseofunusedland,Companiesoptimisewithininternationalnetworks,Focusonstrongcompetitiveunits,Governmentsponsordiscussiononoptimisation,Alternativeforuncompetitiveunits,C.4.Threats,Thegreatestthreatisthatpressuretoadoptthehighestenvironmentalstandardswillhittheoilindustrytoohard,anderodepublicsupport,Over-zealousenvironmentalismcouldbreaktheDutchoilindustryNetherlandsismuchtougheronpolicingcommonenvironmentalrulesthanotherEUstatesPressuregroupsandMunicipalitiescompetetoappeargreenerImplementationmethodsarenotseenasconsistentwiththetrueneeds,Oilmaynolongerbeseenasacontributortosociety,HighcostsassociatedwithRotterdamarecurrentlyoutweighedbyadvantages.Shiftsinthelabourrate-productivi
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