宏观经济学课件(英文版)14.ppt
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宏观经济学课件(英文版)14.ppt
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1,Chapter14ThePublicDebt,2,Inrecentyears,oneofthemostcontroversialeconomicissueshasbeenthegovernmentsbudgetdeficit.Atleastfromreadingthenewspapers,wewouldthinkthattheeconomysuffersgreatlywhenthegovernmentrunsadeficit.Asweshallsee,ourconclusionsdepartdramaticallyfromthoseexpressedinthenewspapers.,ThePublicDebt,3,ThePublicDebt,Budgetdeficitsarisewhenthegovernmentfinancespartofitsexpendituresbyissuinginterest-bearinggovernmentbondspublicdebtratherthanlevyingtaxes.Abudgetdeficitmeansthatthequantityofpublicdebtincreasesovertime.,4,TheHistoryofthePublicDebtintheUnitedStatesandtheUnitedKingdom,5,TheHistoryofthePublicDebtintheUnitedStatesandtheUnitedKingdom,6,TheHistoryofthePublicDebtintheUnitedStatesandtheUnitedKingdom,7,CharacteristicsofGovernmentBonds,Inthemodel,thegovernmentcannowborrowfundsfromhouseholdsbyissuinginterest-bearingbonds.Weassumethatthesegovernmentbondspayinterestandprincipalinthesamewayastheprivatebondsinthemodel.Inparticular,wecontinuetosimplifybyassumingthatallbondshaveveryshortmaturity.,8,CharacteristicsofGovernmentBonds,Wealsoassumethat,likeprivatebonds,governmentbondsspecifynominalamountsofprincipalandinterest.Thatis,wedonotconsiderindexedbonds,whichwediscussedinchapter11.,9,CharacteristicsofGovernmentBonds,Weassumethatbondholders(householdsinourmodel)regardgovernmentbondsasequivalenttoprivatebonds.Specifically,wedonotallowforthepossibilitythatprivatebondsareriskierthangovernmentbondsintermsoftheprobabilityofdefault.Inthiscase,householdswouldholdthetwokindsofbondsonlyiftheypaidthesamenominalinterestrate,i.,10,CharacteristicsofGovernmentBonds,11,CharacteristicsofGovernmentBonds,12,BudgetConstraintsandBudgetDeficits,13,TheGovernmentsBudgetConstraint,14,TheGovernmentsBudgetConstraint,15,TheGovernmentsBudgetConstraint,16,TheBudgetDeficit,17,TheBudgetDeficit,Ifthegovernmentownedcapital,itsnetrealassetswouldincludethiscapital.Inthatcase,anincreaseingovernmentownedcapitalstockcallednetpublicinvestmentwouldmeanthatthegovernmenthadmorenetrealassets.Thus,anincreaseinnetpublicinvestmentmeansthatthegovernmentissavingmoreordissavinglessinrealterms.,18,TheBudgetDeficit,19,TheBudgetDeficit,20,TheBudgetDeficit,Iftheright-handsideofequation(14.4)isgreaterthanzero,thegovernmentsrevenueexceedsitsexpenditure.Economistsdescribethissituationasabudgetsurplus.Iftheright-handsideislessthanzero,thegovernmentsexpenditureexceedsitsrevenue.Economistscallthisabudgetdeficit.,21,TheBudgetDeficit,Therealdeficitisthesameasthegovernmentsrealdissaving.Iftheright-handsideofequation(14.4)equalszero,thegovernmenthasabalancedbudget.Inthiscase,thegovernmentsrealsavingequalszero.,22,TheBudgetDeficit,23,InflationandtheBudgetDeficitintheNationalAccounts,24,InflationandtheBudgetDeficitintheNationalAccounts,25,InflationandtheBudgetDeficitintheNationalAccounts,26,InflationandtheBudgetDeficitintheNationalAccounts,27,InflationandtheBudgetDeficitintheNationalAccounts,28,InflationandtheBudgetDeficitintheNationalAccounts,29,PublicSaving,PrivateSaving,andNationalSaving,30,PublicSaving,PrivateSaving,andNationalSaving,31,PublicSaving,PrivateSaving,andNationalSaving,32,PublicDebtandHouseholdsBudgetConstraints,33,ASimpleCaseofRicardianEquivalence,34,ASimpleCaseofRicardianEquivalence,35,ASimpleCaseofRicardianEquivalence,36,ASimpleCaseofRicardianEquivalence,37,ASimpleCaseofRicardianEquivalence,38,ASimpleCaseofRicardianEquivalence,39,ASimpleCaseofRicardianEquivalence,40,ASimpleCaseofRicardianEquivalence,Hence,householdsexperiencenonetchangeinthepresentvalueofrealtaxeswhenthegovernmentrunsabudgetdeficitinyear1andthenpaysoffthedebtwiththenecessarybudgetsurplusinyear2.,41,ASimpleCaseofRicardianEquivalence,42,ASimpleCaseofRicardianEquivalence,Wecaninterprettheresultasfollows.Householdsreceiveoneunitextraofrealdisposableincomeinyear1becauseofthecutinyear1srealtaxesbyoneunit.However,householdsalsohave1+runitslessofrealdisposableincomeinyear2becauseoftheriseinyear2srealtaxesby1+runits.,43,ASimpleCaseofRicardianEquivalence,Ifhouseholdsusetheextraunitofrealdisposableincomeinyear1tobuyanextraunitofbonds,theywillhavejustenoughadditionalfunds1+runitstopaytheextrarealtaxesinyear2.Thus,thetaxcutinyear1providesenoughresources,butnomore,forhouseholdstopaythehighertaxesinyear2.Thatiswhythereisnoincomeeffect.Nothingisleftovertoraiseconsumptionorreducelaborsupplyinanyyear.,44,ASimpleCaseofRicardianEquivalence,45,AnotherCaseofRicardianEquivalence,46,AnotherCaseofRicardianEquivalence,47,AnotherCaseofRicardianEquivalence,48,AnotherCaseofRicardianEquivalence,Thinkaboutthesequenceofhigherrealtaxesbyrunitsineachyear.Whatquantityofrealbondswouldhouseholdsneedattheendofyear1topaythesetaxes?
Ifhouseholdsholdonemoreunitofrealbonds,therealinterestincomeinyear2wouldberunits,andthisincomecouldbeusedtopayyear2sextrataxes.,49,AnotherCaseofRicardianEquivalence,Then,iftheprincipalofthebondoneunitwereheldovertoyear3,therealinterestincomeofrunitscouldbeusedtopayyear3sextrataxes.Continuingthisway,wefindthattherealinterestincomeeachyearwouldallowhouseholdstomeettheirhigherrealtaxeseachyear.,50,AnotherCaseofRicardianEquivalence,Whatthenisthepresentvalueoftheincreaseinrealtaxesbyrunitsstartinginyear2?
Thispresentvaluemustbethesameastheoneextraunitofrealbondsinyear1neededtopaytheadditionalrealtaxesineachsubsequentyear.But,obviously,thepresentvalueofoneunitofrealbondsinyear1isoneunit.Therefore,weconcludethatthepresentvalueoftheadditionalfuturerealtaxesisone.,51,AnotherCaseofRicardianEquivalence,52,RicardianEquivalencemoreGenerally,53,RicardianEquivalencemoreGenerally,54,RicardianEquivalencemoreGenerally,55,RicardianEquivalencemoreGenerally,56,RicardianEquivalencemoreGenerally,57,RicardianEquivalencemoreGenerally,58,EconomicEffectsofaBudgetDeficit,Weconsidernowwhathappenstotheeconomywhenthegovernmentcutsyear1srealtaxes,T1/P,andrunsabudgetdeficit.Economistsoftenrefertothistypeofchangeasastimulativefiscalpolicy.,59,EconomicEffectsofaBudgetDeficit,Weknowthatthebudgetdeficithasnoincomeeffectsonhouseholdschoicesofconsumptionandlaborsupply.Thereasonisthattheincreaseinthepresentvalueoffuturerealtaxesmatchesthecurrenttaxcut.Theremay,however,besubstitutioneffectsfromthetaxchanges.,60,EconomicEffectsofaBudgetDeficit,Theseeffects,whichweexploredinchapter13,dependontheformsofthetaxesthatarecuttodayandraisedinthefuture.,61,Lump-SumTaxes,62,Lump-SumTaxes,63,Lump-SumTaxes,64,Lump-SumTaxes,65,Lump-SumTaxes,66,Lump-SumTaxes,67,Lump-SumTaxes,68,Lump-SumTaxes,69,Lump-SumTaxes,70,Lump-SumTaxes,71,Labor-IncomeTaxes,72,Labor-IncomeTaxes,73,Labor-IncomeTaxes,74,Labor-IncomeTaxes,75,Labor-IncomeTaxes,76,Labor-IncomeTaxes,77,Labor-IncomeTaxes,78,Asset-IncomeTaxes,79,Asset-IncomeTaxes,80,Asset-IncomeTaxes,81,TheTimingofTaxesandTax-RateSmoothing,Wehavefoundthatbudgetdeficitsandsurplusesallowthegovernmenttochangethetimingoftaxrates.However,itwouldnotbeagoodideaforthegovernmentrandomlytomaketaxrateshighinsomeyearsandlowinothers.,82,TheTimingofTaxesandTax-RateSmoothing,Thesefluctuationsintaxratescauseunnecessaryeconomicdistortionsbecausetheygivehouseholdsthewrongsignalsindetermininghowtochoosethetimepatternoflabor,production,consumption,andinvestment.,83,TheTimingofTaxesandTax-RateSmoothing,Fortunately,theU.S.governmenthasnotbehavedinthiserraticmanner;rather,thepublicdebthastypicallybeenmanagedtomaintainapatternofreasonablystabletaxratesovertime.Thisbehavioriscalledtax-ratesmoothing.Thisphrasesignifiesthatthegovernmentmaintainsstabilityintaxratesevenwheneconomicdisturbancesoccur.,84,StrategicBudgetDeficits,ThisinterpretationoftheReagan-Bushbudgetdeficitsafter1983gaverisetoanewtheorycalledstrategicbudgetdeficits.,85,TheConventionalViewofaBudgetDeficit,Ouranalysisoftheeconomiceffectsofbudgetdeficitsdiffersdramaticallyfromthoseinmostmacroeconomictextbooks.Toseewhy,returntothecaseoflump-sumtaxes,whichareassumedinmostmacroeconomicmodels.Forouranalysis,thekeypointwasthatadeficitfinancedtaxcuthadnoincomeeffectsonhouseholdschoicesofconsumptionandlaborsupply.,86,TheConventionalViewofaBudgetDeficit,Incontrast,thestartingpointfortheconventionalanalysisisthatadeficit-financedtaxcutmakeshouseholdsfeelwealthier.Hence,thetaxcuthasapositiveincomeeffectonconsumptionandanegativeincomeeffectonlaborsupply.,87,SocialSecurity,RetirementbenefitspaidthroughsocialsecurityprogramsaresubstantialintheUnitedStatesandmostotherdevelopedcountries.Someeconomists,suchasMartinFeldstein(1974),arguethatthesepublicpensionprogramsreducesavingandinvestment.Wecanuseourmodeltoexaminethisidea.,88,SocialSecurity,Theargumentforaneffectonsavingapplieswhenasocialsecuritysystemisnotfullyfunded.Inafundedsetup,workerspaymentsaccumulateinatrustfund,whichprovideslaterforretirementbenefits.Thealternativeisapay-as-you-gosystem,inwhichbenefitst
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