FINANCIAL EXPRESS.docx
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FINANCIAL EXPRESS.docx
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FINANCIALEXPRESS
FINANCIALEXPRESS
Chinamaybeabouttotickanotherboxonitslengthyto-dolistforfinancialreform.InlateMaymediareportsclaimedthatthePeople’sBankofChinaplanstoallowbankstoissuecertificatesofdeposittoordinarybankcustomersthisyear,anotherencouragingstridetowardinterestrateliberalizationandababystepinoverallfinancialreform.
AlistofthetasksthatChinaneedstoundertaketoremakeitsfinancialsystemisreadilyavailable.Infact,thereareseveralversions.Eachrelatedministryandregulatorhasitsownindexforthenextstepinopeningup.Thesecuritiescommission,forexample,istryingtowipethedomesticstockmarketcleanoffraudandfalsereportingwhilealsocreatinginvestmentopportunitiesforforeigners.TheStateAdministrationofForeignExchangeiseversoslowlyallowingtheyuantotrademorefreely.Thecentralbankitselfmayhavethelongestlist.PBOCisthetrailblazeroffinancialreform,ifnotannouncingchangestothesystemthenpushingotherstodoso.It’softenhardtokeepup.
Inmid-MarchPeople’sBankchairmanZhouXiaochuansetanewpaceforchange.Inperhapsthebiggestannouncementonfinancialreforminyears,ZhousaidChinacouldfullyliberalizeinterestratesby2016.
EndingstatecontrolovertheinterestratepaidonbankdepositsisthefinalstepChinamusttakeininterestrateliberalization.Thecapontherate,currentlysetat3%,haskeptthecostoflendingartificiallylowduringthelasttwodecadesofrelentlessdevelopment.Thatceiling,alongwithaflooronborrowingcoststhatwasscrappednearlyayearago,gavestatebanksampleroomtolendthedepositsofthemassestostate-ownedfirmsandlocalgovernmentsatbelowmarketprices.Withoutreform,ChinafacestheriskofanincreasinglyhighdebttoGDPratiowhilethereturnonitsinvestmentsgrowssmallerandsmaller.
Allowingcertificatesofdepositforthepublic,whichgivequalifiedbankcustomersaslightlyhigherreturnondeposits,wouldshowthecentralbank’sdeterminationtomeetZhou’stighttwo-yeardeadlineoninterestratereform.
Butthis2016dateisasinglepointonatimelinethatstretchesfarbeyondthehorizon.Whichreformshappenbeforeorafterthatdatearedebatable,evencontested.That’sbecauseachangeinoneareaofChina’sfragilefinancialstructurecould,atleastintheshortterm,undermineanotherreformsomewhereelseinthesystem. Freeinginterestratesisjustoneoffourmajorfinancialreforminitiatives.Theotherthreeareliberalizingexchangerates,reformingcapitalmarketsandopeningChina’scapitalaccount.Noneofthesetakespriorityoveranother.AsthePeople’sBankpushesforward,notonlymustitconsiderthepaceatwhichotherfinancialplayersarecrossingitemsofftheirlists,itmustbesuretheentireeconomy,downtothelevelofpropertydevelopersandregionalgovernments,isonboard.However,inlocalauthoritiesfarfromBeijing,somecadremaynothavereceivedthechecklistforreformyet.
Howtostallforexreform
TwoyearsisablinkofaneyeinChina’soverallreform,andthenewtimelinehasfoundcritics.JustamonthafterZhou’sannouncementonuncappingdepositrates,anothertopfinancialregulatorputforwardhisownversionofhowreformwouldsweepthefinancialsector.
YiGang,thechairmanoftheStateAdministrationforForeignExchangeandoneoffivePBOCdeputygovernors,saidtheexchangerateshouldbeliberalizedbeforeinterestratescanbefullyfreed.Thishascausedsomecommotionamonganalysts,mostofwhomhavelongviewedforeignexchangereformasafarmoredistantgoalthaninterestrateliberalization.
“YiGang’sconcernisperhapsthatinterestrateliberalizationislikelytoresultinhigherinterestratesandattractmorespeculativeinflows,makingitharderforforeignexchangereform,”saidWangQinwei,aneconomistatresearchfirmCapitalEconomicsinLondon.
NixingthecapondepositrateswouldshakeChina’sgrowthmodeltoitscore.Thecostofborrowingwouldriseasbanksstarttocompetefordepositsbypayinghigherinterest.Thatinturncouldgiverisetoanewwaveofarbitrageontheyuan.
Withacurrencyseemingsetonlyonanupwardtrajectory,thosewiththemeanshaveborroweddollarsoffshore,exchangedthemforrenminbionthemainlandandinvestedinplacessuchasmoneymarketfunds.Theprimaryculpritsinthis“carrytrade”aretraders.Asthecostofborrowingrises,sodotheyieldsonmoneymarketfunds,makingthemanincreasinglyattractiveinvestmentoption.Itcouldalsostallforeignexchangereform.
Carrytradehaswreakedhavoconreformersandcustomsofficialsalike.Foryears,ithaswarpedChina’sexportdata.Inanattempttohaltthepractice,PBOCbeganpushingthevalueoftheyuanlowerinFebruary.Inresponsetradershaltedthearbitrageandexportsfellby15%year-onyearinMarch. ThepracticealsoartificiallydrivesupdemandfortheyuanandcouldmakethecurrencyappreciatefurtherthantheChinesegovernmentwouldlike.Yi’sworryisthathotinflowsofcashattractedbyinterestrateliberalizationwouldmakeexchangereformunrulyandpotentiallydestabilizing.
“Whatfactorscouldslowtheforeignexchangereforms?
”asksAlexFusteMozo,chiefeconomistatAndorra-basedAndbank.“Crystalclear:
TheirownChinesecompaniesengagingagaininspeculativeactivity.”
FusteMozohaspointedoutthatthebiggestriskslieintheslowpaceofforeignexchangereform.Asmoreandmoretradeisconductedinrenminbi,thedemandforconvertibilityincreases.Slowerchangestotheforexschemecouldspelloutoveralldelaysinthegrandprizeoffinancialreform:
Theopeningofthecapitalaccount.
Allarrowspointout
Hotinflowsofcashareonething;amassiveoutflowofcapitalisanother?
CperhapsafargreaterthreatofdestabilizationtotheChineseeconomy.Thatprospecthasboundpolicymak-erssuchasSAFEandtheChinaSecuritiesRegulatoryCommissioninastruggletosafelyopenmarketstotheoutsideworld.
China’scapitalaccountisstilllargelyclosed,preventinganysuddensurgeofcashinoroutofthecountrybutalsokeepingmuch-neededforeigncapitalatthedoorstep.In2003,theCSRCandthecentralbankbeganslowlyopeningthedomesticequitymarketwithprogramsthatallotquotastoforeigninstitutionalinvestors.Asimilaroutboundprogramopenedin2006allowsdomesticinstitutionalinvestorstoinvestincapitalmarketsabroad.Asystemforinvestingoffshoreyuanbackontothemainlandalsoexists.
Theseexperimentsforopeningthecapitalaccounthavegrownrapidlysince2011andquotasfortheinboundprogram,theQualifiedForeignInstitutionalInvestorscheme,orQFII,havequintupledfromUS$30billionthentoUS$150billiontoday.AmajorbreakthroughcamethisMarchwhentheCSRCandHongKong’ssecuritiesregulatorannouncedthatqualifiedinvestorsinShanghaiwouldsoonbegivenaquotaofUS$40billiontoinvestintheHongKongstockmarket.AsimilarcohortinHongKongwouldbeallowedtoinvestupUS$48billionintheShang-haistockmarket.
Thismostrecentstepincapitalaccountreform,calledtheShanghaiHongKongConnect,wasapplaudedbyanalystsbutitreveals,yetagain,anotherseriousprobleminthesequencinginoverallfinancialreform,namelyalaginreinventingChina’sdomesticcapitalmarket. Themainlandequitiesmarketisstrickenwithproblemssuchasinsidertradingandfalsereportingonearnings.China’smajorstockindiceshavebeenamongtheworstperformingintheworldforseveralyearsandthelosershavegenerallybeenretailinvestors.Trustinthemarkethasbeenallbutdepleted.
Atthesametime,theCSRCmaintainsanoverbearingroleintheapprovalprocessforcompaniescomingtomarket.TheregulatorclosedtheIPOpipelinebetweenNovember2012andJanuary2014.Nearly1,000firmsqueuedforapproval;somereportedlywentbustinthedesperatesearchforcapital.TheCSRChaspromisedtomoveawayfromitsrigorousapprovalprocessfornewlistingbyenactinganIPOregistry,whereallcompaniesthatmeetasetlistofregulationscansellsharesonthemarket.However,it’sstumblinginthateffort.In2014,theregulatorhassignaledthatitwillcontinuetotightlycon-trolthenumberofIPOs,allowingjust100firmstolistinthesecondhalfoftheyear.
ThelaggardpaceofcapitalmarketsreformathomewillstallanymajoropeningsinChina’scapitalaccount.Chineseinvestorstiredoflosingmoneyondomesticbourseswilljumpatthefirstopportunitytoputtheirmoneyintobetter-performingcapitalmarketsoverseas;meanwhileinternationalinvestorsaren’texactlyeagertoaccessChina’sexchanges.TheQFIIquotaprovesthispoint:
OftheUS$150billionavailabletoforeigninvestors,nearlyUS$100billionhasn’tbeenused.
“Ifthecapitalaccountisfullyopentherewouldbehugeoutflow,”saysDariuszKowalczyk,senioranalystatinvestmentbankCreditAgricoleinHongKong.“Itwouldreducebanks’depositbasesandtheabilitytofundgrowthinChinaandleadtoacollapseoftheexchangerate.”
InternationalforeigninvestorsalreadyhavediversifiedstockportfolioswhereasChinesedonot,Kowalczykpointedout,anotherreasonwhymorecapitalwouldpouroutthanin.
Whenreformisnotenough
ForthePeople’sBank,perhapsthemostdifficultaspectofcoordinatingfinancialreformwillbetryingtogetstate-ownedcompaniesandlocalgovernmentstofollowtheirlead.
Chinaisn’tjustwaistdeepinreworkingitsfinancialsystem.Thecountryisalsocarryingoutmuchneededoverhaulsinnearlyeverycorneroftheeconomy.Thatincludesshakingthewayinwhichl
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