最新美赛格式参考summary sheet精品名师资料Word格式.docx
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2011MathematicalContestinModeling(MCM)SummarySheet
AssessingtheProspectsofElectricVehicles
Summary
Withthegrowingscarcityofpetroleumthroughouttheworld,increasedconcernovertheenvironmentalimpactofthepetroleum-basedtransportationinfrastructurehasledtogreatinterestinanelectrictransportationinfrastructure.Butuncertaintyinhowenvironmentallyandeconomicallysoundareelectricvehiclesstillexists,andthattheirwidespreaduseisfeasibleandpracticalisstilluncertain.Ourpaperaimstoquantifytheeffectsoftheelectricvehiclesontheenvironment,society,economy,health,andmodeltheamountandthetypeofelectricitygenerationtogetthemostbenefitstotheenvironment,society,business,andindividuals.
InModel1,weestablishanevaluationmodelnamedAnalyticHierarchyProcess(AHP)tocomparetheenvironmental,social,economic,andhealthimpactsofelectriccarsandfuelcarsquantitatively.Therearefourparameters,includingenergyconsumption,thegreenhouseeffect,emissionsofharmfulsubstancesandnoisepollution,whichinfluencetheenvironment.Ofcourse,weconductthesimilarworktoanalyzetheinfluentialparametersofsociety,economyandhealth.Intermoftheweights,weconcludethatingeneralelectriccarsarebetterthanfuelcars.
InModel2,usingdata,weadoptlogisticregressiontopredicttheproportionofelectricvehiclesinthefutureonthreepremiseswhichincludethebaselineoilprice,thehighoilpriceandOperator-Subsidizedpremise.Astimegoes,theproportionofelectricvehiclesisincreasinglybiggerandtheamountofenergysavingsisincreasinglybigger.By2030,theproportionofelectricvehiclesinautomarketis86%.Thenusethesamemodeltoconcludethattheamountofoilsavingislarge.
Similarly,weconcludethattheamountofelectricitygenerationisalsoincreasingwithtimegoing.
InModel3,weestablishafunctiontoexpressthetotalbenefitsthatenvironment,society,businessandindividualscanget.Certainly,indifferentcircumstancesandareas,thechoiceofthetypeofelectricitygenerationwilldiffer.Sowediscussunderseveralcircumstanceshowthefunctionwillchange.
Keywords:
AnalyticHierarchyProcess(AHP)Logisticregression
Content
1.Introduction..............................................................................................................................................2
2.Models……………........................................................................................................................................2
2.1Model.
..................................................................................................................................................2
2.1.1TheintroductionofAHP………………………………..…...…………………………….....3
2.1.2Assumptions……………………………………………………………….……..……………….4
2.1.3TheFoundationofModel…………………………………………………………………….4
2.1.4SolutionandResult……………………………………………………………….……….........10
2.1.5AnalysisoftheResult……………………………………………….………………………..……….………10
2.2Model
………………………………………………….…………….……………………………….11
2.2.1Forecastthepenetrationratesofelectricvehicles...........................................12
2.2.2AdditionalAssumptions………………………………………………...…..………………………………..132.2.3Theimpactsofwidespreaduseofelectricvehicle…………………………13
2.2.4Summary…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..14
AnalysisoftheResult……………………………………………………..16
2.3Model
………………………………………………………………………17
3.ConclusionsandDiscussions………..……………………………………………………………17
3.1Conclusionsoftheproblem……………………………………..……………..18
3.2StrengthsandWeakness……………………………………….....……………………..…………18
3.3FutureWork…………………………………………………..…………………………………..….18
4.References...................................................................................................................................................18
I.Introduction
Theimprovementsinbatterytechnologyoverthepasttwodecades,inparticulartheadvancesinLithium-ion(Li-ion)batterytechnologyaswellasautomotivetechnologicaladvancesusheredinbyhybridvehicles,havemadeitpossibletodesignandmanufactureelectricvehicleswithbetterperformancethantheirgasoline-poweredcounterparts.Since2003,whentheToyotaPriuswasthefirstmass-producedhybridgasoline-electriccarandintroducedworldwide,andG-Wizelectriccarbecametheworld'
sbestsellingEV,electricvehicleshasdevelopedrapidly.TheNissanLeafwasdebutedinDecember2010andothermajorautocompanieshaveelectriccarsindevelopment.Meanwhilevariousnationsaroundtheworldarebuildingpilotnetworksofchargingstationstorechargethem.
Thoughtheprospectofelectricvehiclesissplendidaccordingtomarketanalysts,governmentsandmanufacturers,electricvehiclesshareaminimal
proportionofautomarketandthehistoricaldataofthemaboutproductiononwhichtocalculateispoor.Andnowadaysheavyandlong-rangetransportationandshippingishardtoachievetechnically.Inordertoassesstheprospectofelectricvehicles,wechooseelectriccars,especiallyinAmerica,asatypicalparametertoextrapolatetheeffectsofelectricvehicles.
Electricvehicleshavevariousadvantageswhichcanreducegasconsumption,weakenthegreenhouseeffect,protectenvironmentandsoon.However,peopledon’tknowwhetherthewidespreaduseofelectricvehiclesactuallysavefossilfuelsorwemerelybetradingoneuseoffossilfuelforanothergiventhatelectricityiscurrentlymostlyproducedbyburningfossilfuels.Peopledon’tanalyzewhetherornottheneededgrowthofthesealternatesourcesofelectricityislikelyandpossible.
Ourpaperaimstoassesstheimpactsofelectriccarsonenvironment,society,economyandhealth,and,intermsofdata,predicttheproportionofelectricvehiclesintheU.S.inthefuture.Meantime,promotethepredictionmodeltoestimatetheamountofoiltheworldwouldsavebywidelyusingelectriccars.Then,establishingamodeloftheamountandtypeofelectricitygenerationtoproducethelargestnumberofbenefitsoftheenvironment,society,businessandindividuals.
II.Models
2.1Model
Thereisasystematicmethodforcomparingalistofobjectivesoralternatives.Whenusedinthesystemsassessingprocess,AHPcanbeapowerfultoolforcomparingalternativedesignconcepts
Soweconsidertheaspectsofsociety,economy,environmentandhealthasobjectives,andthatwearetryingtoestablishanormalizedsetofweightstobeusedwhencomparingalternativesusingtheseobjectives.Welistthefactorswhichinvolveinsociety,environment,economyandhealth.
2.1.1TheintroductionofAHP
Stepsofdeterminingtheweighs:
1)Formapair-wisecomparisonmatrixA,wherethenumberintheithrowandjthcolumngivestherelativeimportanceofOiascomparedwithOj.
Usea1–9scale,with
–aij=1ifthetwoobjectivesareequalinimportance
–aij=3ifOiisweaklymoreimportantthanOj
–aij=5ifOiisstronglymoreimportantthanOj
–aij=7ifOiisverystronglymoreimportantthanOj
–aij=9ifOiisabsolutelymoreimportantthanOj
2)Thuswemightarriveatthefollowingmatrix:
3)Tonormalizetheweights,computethesumofeachcolumnandthendivideeachcolumnbythecorrespondingsum
4)Usinganoverbartodenotenormalization
5)ThenextstepistocomputetheaveragevaluesofeachrowandusetheseastheweightsintheObjectiveHierarchy.
6)Thenwecangettheweights.TheseweightswouldbeusedinsummingthemeasuresasrequiredintheevaluationoftheObjectiveHierarchy
Notes:
1)
2)Themaximumeigenvalue,λmaxofAisapositiverealnumber.
TheoperatingstepsofAHPconsistencycheck:
1.ComputetheConsistentIndex:
.
2.Find
thecorresponding
averagerandomIndex:
Table1TheAHPIndexTable
theorderofthematrix
1
2
3
4
5
6
R.I.
0.52
0.89
1.12
1.26
7
8
9
10
11
12
1.36
1.41
1.46
1.49
1.52
1.54
3.ComputetheConsistentRadio:
When
wecanconsiderComparisonMatrixasAcceptable
consistency.
2.1.2Assumptions
●Electricvehicles
andfuel
vehicles
arein
astateof
widelyused
●All
electricvehicles
andall
fuelvehicles
havesimilar
properties
●Electricvehicleshavesimilarperformance,andfuelcarshavesimilarperformance.
2.1.3TheFoundationofModel
1)Wepassedthereferencepreviousstudiesandpapers,judgingthatweshouldestablishanAHPmodeltoreflecttheeffectsonenvironment,society,economyandhealthwhentheelectricvehiclesarewidelyused.So,inthismodel,weregardrespectivelyenvironment,society,economyandhealthasobjectives.Inaddition,weanalyzeandlisttherelateelementsaccordingtotheobjectivesasfollows.
Figure1EnvironmentHierarchical
Structure
Accordingto
thedata
andinformation
wecangain
theimpactofeachofthese
factorsonenvironment,andgive
theabovefactors
theorderofsignificance.
A1>
A3>
A2>
A4
Accordingtotheimportance,wecangetComparisonMatrixO1-A.
Table2ComparisonMatrixO1-A
O1
A1
A2
A3
A4
ω11
λmax=4.1145
C.I.=0.0382
C.R.=0.0429
0.4869
1/4
1/3
0.1395
1/2
0.3031
1/5
0.0705
(from),wegetsomeresultsasfollows:
Forthe
criteria
ofthe
A1,
weget
value3indicatingthatelectricvehicles
is
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