Decision Making and Problem SolvingWord格式.docx
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Decision Making and Problem SolvingWord格式.docx
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GeorgeB.Dantzig,RobinHogarth,CharlesR.Piott,HowardRaiffa,ThomasC.Schelling,KennthA.Shepsle,RichardThaier,AmosTversky,andSidneyWinter.
SimonwaseducatedinpoliticalscienceattheUniversityofChicago(B.A.,1936,Ph.D.,1943).HehasheldresearchandfacultypositionsattheUniversityofCalifornia(Berkeley),IllinoisInstituteofTechnologyandsince1949,CarnegieMellonUniversity,whereheistheRichardKingMellonUniversityProfessorofComputerScienceandPsychology.In1978,hereceivedtheAlfredNobelMemorialPrizeinEconomicSciencesandin1986theNationalMedalofScience.
ReprintedwithpermissionfromResearchBriefings1986:
ReportoftheResearchBriefingPanelonDecisionMakingandProblemSolvingÂ
©
1986bytheNationalAcademyofSciences.PublishedbyNationalAcademyPress,Washington,DC.
Introduction
Theworkofmanagers,ofscientists,ofengineers,oflawyers--theworkthatsteersthecourseofsocietyanditseconomicandgovernmentalorganizations--islargelyworkofmakingdecisionsandsolvingproblems.Itisworkofchoosingissuesthatrequireattention,settinggoals,findingordesigningsuitablecoursesofaction,andevaluatingandchoosingamongalternativeactions.Thefirstthreeoftheseactivities--fixingagendas,settinggoals,anddesigningactions--areusuallycalledproblemsolving;
thelast,evaluatingandchoosing,isusuallycalleddecisionmaking.Nothingismoreimportantforthewell-beingofsocietythanthatthisworkbeperformedeffectively,thatweaddresssuccessfullythemanyproblemsrequiringattentionatthenationallevel(thebudgetandtradedeficits,AIDS,nationalsecurity,themitigationofearthquakedamage),atthelevelofbusinessorganizations(productimprovement,efficiencyofproduction,choiceofinvestments),andatthelevelofourindividuallives(choosingacareeroraschool,buyingahouse).
Theabilitiesandskillsthatdeterminethequalityofourdecisionsandproblemsolutionsarestorednotonlyinmorethan200millionhumanheads,butalsointoolsandmachines,andespeciallytodayinthosemachineswecallcomputers.ThisfundofbrainsanditsattendantmachinesformthebasisofourAmericaningenuity,aningenuitythathaspermittedU.S.societytoreachremarkablelevelsofeconomicproductivity.
Therearenomorepromisingorimportanttargetsforbasicscientificresearchthanunderstandinghowhumanminds,withandwithoutthehelpofcomputers,solveproblemsandmakedecisionseffectively,andimprovingourproblem-solvinganddecision-makingcapabilities.Inpsychology,economics,mathematicalstatistics,operationsresearch,politicalscience,artificialintelligence,andcognitivescience,majorresearchgainshavebeenmadeduringthepasthalfcenturyinunderstandingproblemsolvinganddecisionmaking.Theprogressalreadyachievedholdsforththepromiseofexcitingnewadvancesthatwillcontributesubstantiallytoournation'
scapacityfordealingintelligentlywiththerangeofissues,largeandsmall,thatconfrontus.
Muchofourexistingknowledgeaboutdecisionmakingandproblemsolving,derivedfromthisresearch,hasalreadybeenputtouseinawidevarietyofapplications,includingproceduresusedtoassessdrugsafety,inventorycontrolmethodsforindustry,thenewexpertsystemsthatembodyartificialintelligencetechniques,proceduresformodelingenergyandenvironmentalsystems,andanalysesofthestabilizingordestabilizingeffectsofalternativedefensestrategies.(Applicationofthenewinventorycontroltechniques,forexample,hasenabledAmericancorporationstoreducetheirinventoriesbyhundredsofmillionsofdollarssinceWorldWarIIwithoutincreasingtheincidenceofstockouts.)Someoftheknowledgegainedthroughtheresearchdescribesthewaysinwhichpeopleactuallygoaboutmakingdecisionsandsolvingproblems;
someofitprescribesbettermethods,offeringadvicefortheimprovementoftheprocess.
Centraltothebodyofprescriptiveknowledgeaboutdecisionmakinghasbeenthetheoryofsubjectiveexpectedutility(SEU),asophisticatedmathematicalmodelofchoicethatliesatthefoundationofmostcontemporaryeconomics,theoreticalstatistics,andoperationsresearch.SEUtheorydefinestheconditionsofperfectutility-maximizingrationalityinaworldofcertaintyorinaworldinwhichtheprobabilitydistributionsofallrelevantvariablescanbeprovidedbythedecisionmakers.(Inspirit,itmightbecomparedwithatheoryofidealgasesoroffrictionlessbodiesslidingdowninclinedplanesinavacuum.)SEUtheorydealsonlywithdecisionmaking;
ithasnothingtosayabouthowtoframeproblems,setgoals,ordevelopnewalternatives.
PrescriptivetheoriesofchoicesuchasSEUarecomplementedbyempiricalresearchthatshowshowpeopleactuallymakedecisions(purchasinginsurance,votingforpoliticalcandidates,orinvestinginsecurities),andresearchontheprocessespeopleusetosolveproblems(designingswitchgearorfindingchemicalreactionpathways).Thisresearchdemonstratesthatpeoplesolveproblemsbyselective,heuristicsearchthroughlargeproblemspacesandlargedatabases,usingmeans-endsanalysisasaprincipaltechniqueforguidingthesearch.Theexpertsystemsthatarenowbeingproducedbyresearchonartificialintelligenceandappliedtosuchtasksasinterpretingoil-welldrillinglogsormakingmedicaldiagnosesareoutgrowthsoftheseresearchfindingsonhumanproblemsolving.
WhatchieflydistinguishestheempiricalresearchondecisionmakingandproblemsolvingfromtheprescriptiveapproachesderivedfromSEUtheoryistheattentionthattheformergivestothelimitsonhumanrationality.Theselimitsareimposedbythecomplexityoftheworldinwhichwelive,theincompletenessandinadequacyofhumanknowledge,theinconsistenciesofindividualpreferenceandbelief,theconflictsofvalueamongpeopleandgroupsofpeople,andtheinadequacyofthecomputationswecancarryout,evenwiththeaidofthemostpowerfulcomputers.Therealworldofhumandecisionsisnotaworldofidealgases,frictionlessplanes,orvacuums.Tobringitwithinthescopeofhumanthinkingpowers,wemustsimplifyourproblemformulationsdrastically,evenleavingoutmuchormostofwhatispotentiallyrelevant.
Thedescriptivetheoryofproblemsolvinganddecisionmakingiscentrallyconcernedwithhowpeoplecutproblemsdowntosize:
howtheyapplyapproximate,heuristictechniquestohandlecomplexitythatcannotbehandledexactly.Outofthisdescriptivetheoryisemerginganaugmentedandamendedprescriptivetheory,onethattakesaccountofthegapsandelementsofunrealisminSEUtheorybyencompassingproblemsolvingaswellaschoiceanddemandingonlythekindsofknowledge,consistency,andcomputationalpowerthatareattainableintherealworld.
Thegrowingrealizationthatcopingwithcomplexityiscentraltohumandecisionmakingstronglyinfluencesthedirectionsofresearchinthisdomain.Operationsresearchandartificialintelligenceareforgingpowerfulnewcomputationaltools;
atthesametime,anewbodyofmathematicaltheoryisevolvingaroundthetopicofcomputationalcomplexity.Economics,whichhastraditionallyderivedbothitsdescriptiveandprescriptiveapproachesfromSEUtheory,isnowpayingagreatdealofattentiontouncertaintyandincompleteinformation;
toso-called"
agencytheory,"
whichtakesaccountoftheinstitutionalframeworkwithinwhichdecisionsaremade;
andtogametheory,whichseekstodealwithinterindividualandintergroupprocessesinwhichthereispartialconflictofinterest.Economistsandpoliticalscientistsarealsoincreasinglybuttressingtheempiricalfoundationsoftheirfieldbystudyingindividualchoicebehaviordirectlyandbystudyingbehaviorinexperimentallyconstructedmarketsandsimulatedpoliticalstructures.
Thefollowingpagescontainafulleroutlineofcurrentknowledgeaboutdecisionmakingandproblemsolvingandabriefreviewofcurrentresearchdirectionsinthesefieldsaswellassomeoftheprincipalresearchopportunities.
DecisionMaking
SEUTHEORY
ThedevelopmentofSEUtheorywasamajorintellectualachievementofthefirsthalfofthiscentury.Itgaveforthefirsttimeaformallyaxiomatizedstatementofwhatitwouldmeanforanagenttobehaveinaconsistent,rationalmatter.Itassumedthatadecisionmakerpossessedautilityfunction(anorderingbypreferenceamongallthepossibleoutcomesofchoice),thatallthealternativesamongwhichchoicecouldbemadewereknown,andthattheconsequencesofchoosingeachalternativecouldbeascertained(or,intheversionofthetheorythattreatsofchoiceunderuncertainty,itassumedthatasubjectiveorobjectiveprobabilitydistributionofconsequenceswasassociatedwitheachalternative).Byadmittingsubjectivelyassignedprobabilities,SEUtheoryopenedthewaytofusingsubjectiveopinionswithobjectivedata,anapproachthatcanalsobeusedinman-machinedecision-makingsystems.Intheprobabilisticversionofthetheory,Bayes'
sruleprescribeshowpeopleshouldtakeaccountofnewinformationandhowtheyshouldrespondtoincompleteinformation.
TheassumptionsofSEUtheoryareverystrong,permittingcorrespondinglystronginferencestobemadefromthem.Althoughtheassumptionscannotbesatisfiedevenremotelyformostcomplexsituationsintherealworld,theymaybesatisfiedapproximatelyinsomemicrocosms--problemsituationsthatcanbeisolatedfromtheworld'
scomplexityanddealtwithindependently.Forexample,themanagerofacommercialcattle-feedingopera
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