Chap007财务报表分析与证券估值第5版答案扩展资料资料文档Word文档下载推荐.docx
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Chap007财务报表分析与证券估值第5版答案扩展资料资料文档Word文档下载推荐.docx
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ThetablebelowshowsthatP/Eratiosarepositivelycorrelatedwithbeta.Thetablereportstheaveragebetasfor10portfoliosformedfromarankingonE/P(theinverseofP/E)forU.S.stocksfrom1963-20×
×
.YoucanseethatbetasarehigherforlowE/P(highP/E)stocks.ButnotealsothatthereturnsfrombuyingstocksarelowerfortheE/P(highP/E)stocks:
Buyinggrowth—highP/Estocks—isrisky,yieldinglowerreturns.
E/PPortfolio
E/P
(%)
Beta
AnnualReturns(%)
1(Low)
-32.5
1.38
16.0
2
-3.3
1.32
10.3
3
2.0
1.28
11.4
4
4.5
1.22
12.8
5
6.1
1.14
14.8
6
7.4
1.06
15.2
7
8.6
1.01
17.9
8
10.0
0.97
18.1
9
11.8
0.96
20.8
10(High)
16.3
0.99
25.3
AFormulafortheImpliedGrowthRate
Theformulaforsolvingfortheimpliedgrowthratewitharesidualearningsmodelis:
whereTisthepointatwhichyouareinferringthefutureg.Notethat1+risoneplustherequiredreturn(whichisthesameasρEthatweuseinthetext.Theformuladeliverswhichdelivers1+thegrowthrate,soacmodatesnegativegrowthrates:
thenumberforanegativegrowthof5%is0.95.
Notethat,ifREispositive,thereverseengineeringonlyworksforP-Bpositive.ForanegativeP–BandapositiveRE,onehastoforecastthatREwilldeclineandactuallypassthroughzero(tonegative),somethingthatcannotbecapturedbyaconstantnegativegrowthrate(thatforecastsRE=0butnotnegative).
ItdoesworkforP–BnegativeandREnegative.
Alsonotethatitdoesnotworkwellfor
P–Bisclosetozero(theP/Bratioiscloseto1)….youcangetverylargeg.ItthiscaseyouhavetoforecastoutfurtherintothefutureuntilP–Bislarger…buttheimportantquestionhereiswhetherREonaverageisclosetozero(tojustifynopremium).
ReverseEngineering:
Beforegoingintothereverseengineering,werepeat(inparta)theHPvaluationonthewebpageforChapter5.Then(inpartb)wegointoreverseengineeringmodetodiscoverthemarket’simpliedgrowthforecast.
InNovember,1999,attheheightofthetechnologybubble,Hewlett-Packard’ssharestradedat$83each.Analystswereexpectingthefirmtoannounceearningsof$3.33pershareforthejust-endedOctober31fiscalyearandabookvaluepershareof$19.36.Theannualdividendpershareforfiscal1999was0.64.
Analystswerealsoforecastingearningsforfiscal2000at$3.75pershare,$4.32for20×
andagrowthrateinepsof12%peryearthereafter.Fromtheseforecasts,wecan(a)valueHPand(b)calculatethemarket’simpliedlong-termgrowthrateratherthanusingtheanalysts’12%growthrate.
ThemajorityofanalystshadaBUYorSTRONGBUYonHPatthetime.Wecanalsoapplythevaluationtechniquestoaskwhethertheseremendationsconsistentwiththeforecasts.We’lluseacostofequitycapitalof12%
(a)TheValuation
1.Thedpsforecastisbasedonmaintainingthesamepayoutratioasin1999.
2.CV=
=36.80,where7%isthelong-termgrowthratioinRE.
PVofCV=36.80/1.405=26.19.
Thevaluationfromtheforecastsislessthanthemarketpriceof$83.TheforecastsimplyaSELL,notaBUY.
Notethatonecouldalsocalculatethecontinuingvalueattheendof20×
basedonthe1.72ofREin20×
growingat7%,andgetthesameanswer.
(b)TheImpliedGrowthRate
Supposethemarketsetsthe$83priceusinganalysts’forecastsfor2000and20×
plusalong-termgrowthrateforecastafter20×
.Thecontinuingvalueat20×
willbe
BPS,199919.36
PVofREto20×
:
(1.28+1.30)2.58
Presentvalueofcontinuingvalueat20×
?
Valuepershare83.00
TheimpliedPVofCV(?
)is61.06.TheimpliedCVattheendof20×
=61.06x1.254=76.57.TheimpliedgrowthrateintheCVisthatwhichsolvestheCVcalculation:
76.57=(1.63xg)/(1.12–g)
Thusg=1.095(animpliedgrowthrateof9.5%).
Themarketisforecastingaresidualearningsgrowthrateof9.5%.ThatcanbetranslatedintoanearningsgrowthratewiththeproceduresinChapter7thatproducedthegrowthpathforGoogle.(AlsoseetheKimberly-Clarkexamplebelow.)
AReverseEngineeringExercise:
KimberleyClark
Kimberly-ClarkCorp(KMB)reportedabookvalueforits568.6millionmonsharesof$5,650milliononDecember31,20×
.AnalystsareforecastingEPSof$3.36for20×
and$3.60for20×
andtheindicateddividendpershareis$1.36.Acceptingtheseforecastsasvalid,andusingarequiredequityreturnof9%,dealwiththefollowing.
a.Prepareatableoftargetpricesfortheendof20×
basedonthefollowingforecasts:
∙Residualearningswillremainconstantafter20×
∙Residualearningswillgrowat2%after20×
∙Residualearningswillgrowat4%after20×
b.KMBiscurrentlytradingat$52pershare.Whatisthemarket’sforecastofthegrowthrateinresidualearningsafter20×
?
c.Atthisimplicitgrowthrate,whataretheEPSthatthemarketisforecastingfor20×
and20×
d.Whatisthemarket’simplicittargetpriceattheendof20×
TheSolution
Preparetheproforma:
20×
20×
Eps3.363.60
Dps1.361.36
Bps9.9411.9414.18
ROCE33.8%30.2%
Residualearnings(RE)2.4652.525
(a)
Withaconstantgrowthrate,thevaluein20×
isequalto
Value20×
=BookValue20×
+
(Thisisjusttheresidualearningsformulawithconstantgrowth.)
REfor20×
isREfor20×
growingattheforecastedgrowthrate:
RE20×
=2.525xg
So,
=14.18+
Calculatetheexpectedvalueattheendof20×
forthegrowthratesgiveninthequestion:
GrowthrategValue
0%100.0%$42.24
2%102.0%50.98
4%104.0%66.71
Thesecalculationsdemonstrateapoint:
atargetvalueisalwaysexpectedbookvalueplusthecontinuingvalue:
Targetprice20×
=BookValue20×
+Continuingvalue
(b)
Thecurrentvaluation(in20×
)isgivenby:
IfV20×
=$52,then
g=1.032(growthrateof3.2%)
(c)
Theresidualearningsgrowthrateiseasilyconvertedtoanearningspershareforecast:
Earningst=(Bookvaluet-1x0.09)+REt
Residualearnings2.5252.6062.689
Bps14.1816.7019.53
Eps3.884.19
Forecastedepsfor20×
=$3.88
=$4.19
(d)
Withagrowthrateof3.2%,
V20×
=$59.12
bythesamecalculationsasin(a).
LookingatBuffet’sStockTransactionUsingChapter7Methods
HerearetwocasesthatdealwithBuffett’ssaleofNikestockandhispurchaseonIBMstock.
A.TheNikeSale
BerkshireHathaway’s13-Ffilingforthethirdquarterof20×
reportedthatWarrenBuffetthadreducedhisstakeinNike,Inc.by$224million,bringinghisholdingto7.62percentofthe480millionoutstandingshares.Nikereportedacorereturnonnetoperatingassets(coreRNOA)of32.7percentinitsannualreportfortheyearendedMay,20×
.Asummaryofitsbalancesheetatfiscal-yearendfollows:
Netoperatingassets$5,318million
Netfinancialassets4,436
Commonequity$9754million
Inmid-July,atthetimethattheannualreportwaspublished,Nike’ssharestradedat$68each.BytheendofSeptember,thepricehadrisento$81.
EvaluateBuffett’sdecisiontosellbycalculatingtheexpectedreturnfrombuyingatthemarketpriceinmid-JulywithaforecastthatNikecangrowresidualoperatingineat4percentperyear.NowmakethesamecalculationfortheSeptemberprice.DoyouseewhyBuffettmayhavesold?
Theanalysis:
July:
Equityprice=480mill.Shares×
$68=$32,640million
Enterpriseprice=$32,640–4,436=$28,204million
Enterprisebook-to-price=
=0.189
Expectedreturnfrombuyingatthecurrentmarketprice
=(0.189×
32.7%)+[(1-0.189)×
4%]
=6.18%+3.24%
=9.42%
September:
Equityprice=480mill.shares×
$81=$38,880million
Enterpriseprice=$38,880–4,436=$34,444million
=0.154
=(0.154×
32.7%)+(0.846×
4%)
=5.04%+3.38%
=8.42%
Buffet’sexpectedreturnhasgonedownduethepriceincrease.Ofcourse,hisexpectationofforwardRNOAandgrowthmayalsohavechanged.
B.TheIBMPurchase
OnNovember14,20×
WarrenBuffettannouncedthatBerkshireHathawayhadaccumulatedashareholdinginIBMofslightlyover5percent.ThiswasseenassignificantforBuffetthasalwaysavoidedtechnologypanies,sayingtheyarefirmshedoesnotunderstand.
Thestockclosedat$187.5pershareonthatdaywith1,178millionsharesoutstanding.IBMwasreportinga13.4percentcoreoperatingprofitmargin(aftertax)andanassetturnoverof2.45,withabalancesheetatSeptember30,20×
thatissummarizedasfollows(inmillionsofdollars):
Operatingassets98,855
Financialassets11,303
Totalassets110,158
Operatingliabilities57,620
Financialli
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