外文翻译消费信贷的决定因素研究基于文献的回顾.docx
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外文翻译消费信贷的决定因素研究基于文献的回顾.docx
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外文翻译消费信贷的决定因素研究基于文献的回顾
中文5640字
外文翻译
TheDeterminantsofConsumerCredit:
AReviewoftheLiterature
MaterialSource:
ConsumerCreditinEuropeAuthor:
DanielaVandone
1Introduction
Theliteratureofconsumercreditissizeable.Suchabodyofworkreflectsnotonlythecompositenatureofunsecureddebt,butalsothefactthatdifferentmethodologicalapproachesexistdependingontheresearchquestionsunderanalysisandtheobjectivessought.Fourmainapproachescanbeseen:
amanagementapproach,whichfocusesonthecharacteristicsofthecreditindustry,itsworkingsandthepoliciesadoptedbysupply-sideplayers;alegalapproach,whichinvestigatestheimpacttheregulatoryframeworkhasoncompetitionandconsumerprotection;asocio-psychologicalapproach,whichanalyseshowindividualsareaffectedbyconsumptionbehaviourandindebtednesschoices;aneconomicapproach,whichforthemostpartconcentratesonthedeterminantsofthedemandforandsupplyofconsumercreditandonananalysisofthecharacteristicsofindividualsandhouseholdsindebt.
Inthischapterwewilldiscusstheeconomicapproachwiththeaimofprovidinganoutlineoftheindividualandinstitutionalfactorsthatareconsideredintheliteratureasdeterminantsofconsumercredit.Theeconomicmodelsreferredtoarebasedontheeconomicrationalityofindividuals,whoseektoincreaselivingstandardsbysmoothingconsumptionoverdifferentperiodsoftheirlivesthroughsavingandborrowingdecisions.Accordingtothesemodels,consumercreditdemandandsupplyisdeterminedbyindividualfactors.
2TheLife-CycleandPermanentIncomeTheories
Thetheoreticaleconomicframeworkforconsumption,savingandindebtednessdecisionsisdevelopedwithintheLife-Cycletheory,developedbyModiglianiandBrumbergin1954,andthePermanentIncomeHypothesis,proposedbyFriedmanin1957.Thecentralideaoftheseintertemporalconsumptionchoicemodelsisthathouseholdsmaketheirconsumptionchoices(andconsequentlythoserelatingtosavingandindebtedness)onthebasisoftheirwealth,currentdisposableincomeandfutureincomeexpectationssoastoguaranteeauniformlevelofconsumptionovertheirlifetimes.
Theunderlyingassumptionofthesemodelsisthatincomeisgenerallylowinanindividual’searlyworkinglifeandtendstorisetowardsretirement.Individualsatthestartoftheirworkinglife,expectinghigherfutureincomereceipts,financethepurchaseofassetsinordertoraiseconsumptionoverthelevelofferedbycurrentincome.Nearingtheendoftheirworkinglives,inversely,individualsraisesavingslevelsinpreparationforretirementwhenspendingwillbegreaterthanearnings.Withinthisframework,savingandindebtednessguaranteeheightenedeconomicwelfarebysmoothingoutconsumptionovertime.
Inthe"standardtheory",namedassuchbyModiglianihimself,theeconomicmodelpositsthatchoicesregardinghouseholds’consumptionlevelsoverdifferentperiodsoftheirlifearesubjecttoanintertemporalbudgetconstraint.Considerablefurtherempiricalanalysesofthetheoryhavestressedtheneedforthestandardmodeltotakeintoaccounttwoadditionalaspects:
——Householdsdemandfordebtissubjecttofactorsotherthanincomeandwealth;
——householdsmaybe"liquidityconstrained".
Encompassingtheseaspectseffectivelyimpliesthemodelshouldaddressvariablesthatinfluenceboththedemandandsupplysidesofthecreditmarket(Table1.1).
Table1.1Consumercreditdemandandsupplyfactors
CREDITDEMAND
INDIVIDUALFACTORS
CREDITSUPPLY
Socio-demographic
Age
Education
Sizeandcompositionoffamily
......
Economic
Income
Wealth
Uncertainty
......
INSTITUTIONALFACTORS
Efficiencyofjusticesystem
Information-sharing
Informalcreditmarkets
......
2.1CreditDemandFactors
Withregardstoindividualfactors,empiricalanalysishasextendedthestandardmodelbyexaminingtowhatextentsocio-demographicvariables,suchastheageoftheheadofthehousehold,thesizeandmakeupofthefamily,andlevelsofeducation,influenceindividuals’spending,savingandborrowingchoices.
Consistentwiththelife-cycle,youngpeople,characterisedbyexpectationsofrisingincomereceipts,haveastrongdemandforcreditwhich,overtime,dropsbecauseincomeissufficienttocoverspendingandwithageindividualsbecomemoreadversetoindebtedness.Indebtednessishigherorthecapacitytosaveisloweralsointhecaseoflargefamilieswithchildrenatpre-schoolorschoolagewheninthislife-cyclephasespendingistypicallyhigh.Thisbeingsaid,however,thepresenceofchildrenmayalsobeanincentiveforgreatersavinginordertosatisfyinter-generationalassettransfer.Educationalsohasapositiveeffectonthedemandforcreditbothbecauseitreflectsaprobableriseinfutureincomeandgreaterjobsecurityandreducesthecostsofenteringthecreditmarketthankstoanenhancedcapacitytomakeinformeddecisionsregardingindebtedness.Inadditiontotheeconomicvariablesalreadyincludedintheoriginalframework,i.e.individuals’incomeandwealth,empiricalanalysishasextendedthemodeltoincludealsouncertaintyabouttheamountandvariabilityoffutureincome.Suchuncertaintydeterminestheneedtoretainliquidityasaprecautionagainstincomefallsorunexpectedincreasesinliabilities,withasubsequentincreaseinsavingandareductioninthedemandforcredit.
Turningtoinstitutionalfactors,theliteratureidentifiesthreeinparticular:
theextentofinformation-sharingamongstfinancialinstitutionsregardingthelevelofborrowers’creditrisk,theefficiencyofthejusticesystemintakingstepsagainstinsolventindividuals,andthesizeoftheinformalcreditmarket.Institutionalfactorsinfluencethedemandforcreditbycreatingtheconditionsforthemarkettosanctionopportunisticbehaviour.Thedecisiontorepayaloandependsinfactnotonlyonthecapacity,butalsoonthewillingnessofanindividualtorespectthecontractualobligationsundersigned.Putanotherway,ahouseholdmaydecidetotakeoutaloannotasawayofanticipatingspendingbasedonexpectationsofincreasedfutureincomereceipts,butbecausehe/sheknowsthattheloanwillnotberepaid;aphenomenonaptlytermedas"strategicinsolvency"(Groppetal.1997).information-sharingmechanismsamongstlendersreduceahousehold’sincentivetoover-borrowbydemandingcredittomorethanoneinstitutionatthesametimeaseachlenderwillbeinapositiontoknowtheapplicant’stotalsystem-wideexposure.Withregardstotheefficiencyofthejusticesystem,theprobabilityoflatepaymentsorinsolvencyincreaseswhencreditrecoveryproceduresarecostlyandlengthy.Turningtothethirdinstitutionalfactor–theroleofinformalcreditmarkets–individualswhohaveaccesstoloansfromrelativesandfriendswillregardthepossibleexclusionfromformalcreditcircuitsaslessproblematicalthankstothefactthatwheninneedtheycanalwaysturntoinformalcreditsolutions.
2.2CreditSupplyFactors
Thestandardmodelassumesthattherearenoconstraintsonthepartofthehouseholdtoobtaincredit.Theamountoftheloan,however,iseithersubjecttoaceilingorthelevelofinterestratesappliedbylendersmayreduceorcancelthedemandforcredit,soforcinghouseholdstolimittheirspendingtotheresourcesavailable.
Creditconstraintsarewidelyviewedintheliteratureasderivingfromtheexistenceofasymmetricinformationbetweenborrowersandlenders;suchinformationalimperfectionsforcelenderstotakestepstoavoidapprovingloansthatwillsubsequentlynotberepaid.Inturn,creditavailabilitybyfinancialintermediariesdependsonanindividual’ssocio-demographicandeconomiccharacteristicsaswellashis/herinstitutionalsetting.Astoindividualfactors,highincomeandwealthlevelscombinedwithconditionsofstableemploymentincreasethesupplyofcreditofferedbylenders.
Withregardstotheimpactofinstitutionalfactorsonthesupplyside,twoofthethreefactorspreviouslymentionedintheanalysisofthedemandsideareparticularlysignificant:
theefficiencyofthejusticesystemandtheexistenceofinformation-sharingmechanisms.Anefficientjusticesystemallowslenderstorecovernon-performingloansrapidlyatcontainedcosts.Thisisclearlythecasewithsecureddebtexposures:
delaysanddifficultiesinobtainingtherepossessionofmortgagedpropertyactasdisincentivesforlenderstoextendtheirmortgageloanportfolio.
Thesameinstitutionalfactormayalsohaveanimpactonthesupplyofunsecuredcredit:
inthiscase,thedisciplinaryeffectoninsolventindividualsisrepresentedbyinformationconcerningthemandcollectedbycreditbureausthatmaydamagetheirprospectsofaccessingthecreditmarketagaininthefuture.Insuchascenario,theavailabilityofcreditisaffectedbytheexistenceamongstlendersofinformation-sharingmechanismswhichareusedinbuildingupcustomercredit-riskprofilesandwhichthereforereduceasymmetricinformation.
3EmpiricalFindings
EmpiricalanalysesaimedatstudyingthedeterminantsofhouseholdcreditmarketsandtheircoherencewithLife-CycleandPermanentIncomemodelsfocusonthefollowingareas,accordingtotheresearchquestionstheyinvestigate:
——Participationinthecreditmarket
——Levelofborrowing
——Cross-countrycharacteristics
——Riskofover-indebtedness
——Creditconstraints
Workacrosstheseareasexaminesbothindividualandinstitutionalvariables.Analysishastypicallyconcentratedonthedemandside,thoughabranchofstudyhasusedeconomicmodelstoinvestigatethedeterminantsofthesupplyofconsumercredit(Table1.2).
Table1.2Theliteratureofhousehol
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